11,500

So it's coming, a big correction is looming and you have to ask yourself, do you have cash on the sidelines ready to take advantage when the time is right?

JJ: i wonder if this is the beginning of the 20% correction
JJ: down to like 11,500 for the DOW
JJ: i think some of the more conservative types
JJ: (including the Fed)
JJ: think that is a more realistic level

John: I agree the recent economy is way over inflated and one has to ask what has the recent good times been based on? The apple iPhone?

To me, it's all false hope that has been driving the recent good times. The average cost of living for america has gone up and the average worth of a dollar has gone down. Meanwhile... salaries are not moving. What it means is... America is buying on borrowed money. America is living on borrowed money and frankly... in the short term it means, as my buddy JSeezieFoShizzie likes to say, "sexy times"

People are getting what they want. But now... now that they have maxed out their credit cards, they're coming back down into reality "that shit... I can't spend like I used to" and "oh man, that 'credit' thing is kinda important."

So now... back to normal spending... and worse for the economy it's time for the consumer to start paying back what it borrowed. So with that being said, YES! the DOW should be back around 11,500. I hope to see you all there with money in hand.

Time to double down

So I've made some solid bets so far in 2007 and I've cashed out on my short terms shares already. With the recent loan crisis and subprime crash, opportunity is everywhere but especially with a handful of proven winners! Time to restock!

So here's what I see:

LOOP (LoopNet): I originally got in at 14 and it shot up to 27. This morning, it clocked in at 17.85 and for a company who has beaten estimates 5 quarters in a row, I think this is a bargain price to get in at.

VLO (Valero): We got in on this badboy at 50 and it shot up to 78. Right now it's back at 60 and it's still dropping. It's still driving season and I'm telling you right now, oil is not coming down especially with Labor Day looming. I'll be looking much more seriously at our country's dominant sour crude refinery at around $55

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Newbie to the BaggerJohn Radar is BWLD (Buffalo Wild Wings): The stock exploded from $8($15) to $95($48) this year and then split. it's down to $32 a share from the post-split price of $48 and I'm definitely going to take a lookie.

OLED (Cambridge Display): YEEEEEEEEEE-HAAAAAAAAAAAW!!! VIVA OLED REVOLUTION!

It's beginning! Yes sir it is. I looked a while back into Cambridge Display and between that and Universal Display (PANL), PANL was easily the way to go. Cambridge doesn't hold a candle to Universal Displays technology, patent ownership and penetration and just today, it agreed to be bought out by Sumitomo Chemical for $12 a share. They are essentially buying their expertise, not their tech. And look, off to the races. OLED has doubled in one day. Now even tho I don't own it. I have a solid understanding of the Organic LED space and this just means nothing but good news for the industry in general where there were really only 2: The champ, PANL and the distant runnerup OLED. To me, it's just validation that investing in this space is a good bet.

PANL's technology is already showing up in a number of consumer devices that debut earlier in the year. From Samsung Laptops with OLED backlights that double the battery life, to Sony MP3 players that have 50 hours of life to the big mama, Sony OLED TVs that are 3 millimeters (MILLIMETERS!) thick and have 1,000,000 to 1 contrast ratio that has imagery that's better than life. In comparison, the best offering currently out there besides OLED TV is 14,000 to 1.

According to my calculations, if PANL were to be bought out in a similar fashion that OLED was, it would be a $35 - $40 dollar stock. So yes, today was OLED's day but I patiently await PANL's homecoming. VIVA ORGANIC LED!

Read more about Cambridge's Takeover

BUY BUY BUY!!!

There's a SALE! Everything going for 20% off!

EBAY (eBay Inc): What else does this stock have to do!?

OMFG... You have a stock that has soundly beat estimates two quarters in a row and investors still can't go all in with this stock!? You all understand that the second quarter is easily the toughest for eBay. Not so...

eBay delivered better-than-expected second-quarter results with profits that jumped to 50% (That's two quarters in a row we've beat estimates and brought in 50+%) Revenues climbed 30% to hit $1.83 billion. Adjusted earnings soared 34%, landing on the $0.34 per-share mark. The top- and bottom-line showings clocked in slightly ahead of where Wall Street was perched. The magic number was .32. eBay played the part of Houdini.

I just don't understand what's going on. We're making a killing off the weak dollar meaning International Sales add that much more to the bottomline. G-Pay is calling PayPal Daddy and Skype just keeps on growing. Let's not forget that eBay now has advertising dollars and a sick portfolio of companies that include StubHub, Kijiji and Half.

So listings are lower. That's because eBay raised listing fees to reduce the amount of crap on the site. What!? Are they telling me users love a crappy user experience where they have to sift through thousands of worthless listings? Give it time, eBay has announced that they are updating a ton of features on their site during eBay Live.

My call... HOLD... Hold until this stock hits 58 again. Hold on... hopefully just a little bit longer.

ISV (Insite Vision): Waiting to be Cleared for Take-Off

This share totally perplexes me. It's a company with a lot of success in getting products approved by the FDA yet investors have ignored it. Well, not this investor. I'm deep into this bad boy and I'm going to wait patiently until ground control gives us clearance for take-off.

So why am I sitting pretty? Back in April, InSite Vision won FDA approval for lead product AzaSite, which treats certain eye infections. It's planning a late-third-quarter domestic product launch from partner Inspire Pharmaceuticals which licensed the product back in February. If you need estimates, AzaSite is expected to launch in the late third quarter of this year, and Inspire has provided full-year 2008 sales guidance of $30 million to $45 million. My peak domestic sales estimate for AzaSite is $100 million in 2010, or roughly a 25% share of what should be a $417 million market, assuming just 5% compounded growth. So what it comes down to is that this is a company that currently makes no money and the estimates listed above are terribly conservative in that they don't even make mention of international sales at all.

I might also mention the public desire for this stock to be bought out by Inspire Pharma for $4-$5 a share.



Notes:
In Portfolio: In at 1.38
Duration: For the longterm Baby!
Remember: Snoopy Sno-Cone Machines?

AMZN (Amazon): ... What in the World is Going On!?

What the hell!? They outline a strategy for China and the stock shoots up even more. This stock reminds of the game Topple. How much higher can it go?

Reasons to short:

1) P/E is 125 Google is 45.01 (the stock is at $500+) and AAPL is 38.81 ($122+).
2) They have one (ONE!) profitable quarter in all of their existence.
3) The Chinese market is notorious for things that can be pirated, copied or downloaded.
4) China's Market is currently getting pummeled.

As always, we'll see. I will personally say that I'm a little fearful of this one but seriously, this has gotten out of hand. Time for this balloon to come back to earth.



Notes:
In Portfolio: Short Selling at 74
Duration: Just a few bucks. The scary thing about this stock is that I don't think the stupid thing is done growing
NBA Finals Prediction: As much as I want LeBron to win. Really, it'd be dumb to go against the Spurs.