T-minus 10...

So September is historically the worst month of the year and November and December are usually the best (the last 12 years, we've only had one down year and it was only down 1%) so the big question of today is... what does October get to be?

Well, if the stock market is like a rocket, October is countdown time and everything is shaking all over the place. In plain english, it's volatile. So it means some potential opportunities before the holiday season to get in some last bets.

Although it's not like September (for 2007, August) where the market had a serious pull back (the deals are screaming), there are still some great buys if you are willing to look. So here are some questions that I'm asking myself and a short answer ... uh... to myself...

Is this the last time we see Apple Stock (AAPL) at 150 (Before it goes to 200+)?

- My guess... ya...

Is Universal Display (PANL) going to give back the gains it had no reason making?

- probably

Is Best Buy (BBY) going to well like it usually does or will be it a dud like last year (that was the exception)?

- No hot device this year, flatscreens not making the margins like they used to... ya... a dud...

Is eBay (EBAY) going to finally explode this year and hit 50-60?

- Yes, *play the Conan the barbarian themesong*, I say they come out swinging in the fourth

and has Amazon (AMZN) finally turned the corner and going to start kicking some serious retail ass?

- Yes, and if they haven't already.

... as always, we'll see. But the point of this entry is for us to keep our eyes open and our order forms ready just in case an opportunity does happen to appear.

Hang on tight!

So I haven't written in a while mainly because there really is nothing to say. I've been making a lot of moves recently and I finally got my portfolio to a place where I'm really happy with it. So here's an analysis of what I'm looking at and how I think it will do.

AAPL (Apple) - Do I need to talk about this one?

AMD (uhh... AMD) - New product has been released and with the recent spotlight on Intel's shady practices, Intel will need to "play nice" during these antitrust inquiries so as not to draw additional attention. Let's hope for a recovery on the stock.

ARNA (Arena Pharma) - Passed the safety trials for Lorcraserin easily and announced positive data on their insomnia drug today. There is no reason why this stock should be in the low 11's.

EBAY (...eBay) - It's wintertime and the site doesn't look like crap anymore. I'm hoping for a strong run this holiday season.

GLUU (GLU Mobile) - I'm trying to reduce. Might take a loss at the end of the year.

ISV (Insite Vision) - Azasite is out to market, let's see how it does. Better yet, let's see if Inspire finally buys them out!

LOOP (LoopNet) - Triple Hidden Gem pick that has yet to take off. The other 3 already exploded. The deal with CBG doesn't hurt either =D (if you are wondering... MIDD, CTRP, BWLD are the other 3 members of the triple HG club).

PANL (Universal Display) - UP and Down and on and on. I love the volatility of this one.

SBUX (Starbucks) - It's getting cold and dark again, You gotta love Starbucks in the winter like you love Valero in the summer. Deal with iTunes is intriguing... I want to see what it does.

VMW(VM Ware) - When in Rome...

Overall, I have a lot of optimism and with the Fed dropping the rate half a point with more to come, hopefully investors will be willing to put the money that's been sitting on the sidelines for another run. What do you say all? Let's make some money!

AAPL (Apple Inc): Steve Jobs has Balls of Steel

So Apple recently released their next generation of iPods and dropped the price of their current iPhone by a whopping $200 making all the people who bought the iPhones for $500 and $600, and for lack of a better phrase (but probably most accurately describes the situation), "bust a nut".

In response to the overwhelming outrage, Apple CEO, Steve Jobs released this letter:

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To all iPhone customers:

I have received hundreds of emails from iPhone customers who are upset about Apple dropping the price of iPhone by $200 two months after it went on sale. After reading every one of these emails, I have some observations and conclusions.

First, I am sure that we are making the correct decision to lower the price of the 8GB iPhone from $599 to $399, and that now is the right time to do it. iPhone is a breakthrough product, and we have the chance to 'go for it' this holiday season. iPhone is so far ahead of the competition, and now it will be affordable by even more customers. It benefits both Apple and every iPhone user to get as many new customers as possible in the iPhone 'tent'. We strongly believe the $399 price will help us do just that this holiday season.

Second, being in technology for 30+ years I can attest to the fact that the technology road is bumpy. There is always change and improvement, and there is always someone who bought a product before a particular cutoff date and misses the new price or the new operating system or the new whatever. This is life in the technology lane. If you always wait for the next price cut or to buy the new improved model, you'll never buy any technology product because there is always something better and less expensive on the horizon. The good news is that if you buy products from companies that support them well, like Apple tries to do, you will receive years of useful and satisfying service from them even as newer models are introduced.

Third, even though we are making the right decision to lower the price of iPhone, and even though the technology road is bumpy, we need to do a better job taking care of our early iPhone customers as we aggressively go after new ones with a lower price. Our early customers trusted us, and we must live up to that trust with our actions in moments like these.

Therefore, we have decided to offer every iPhone customer who purchased an iPhone from either Apple or AT&T, and who is not receiving a rebate or any other consideration, a $100 store credit towards the purchase of any product at an Apple Retail Store or the Apple Online Store. Details are still being worked out and will be posted on Apple's website next week. Stay tuned.

We want to do the right thing for our valued iPhone customers. We apologize for disappointing some of you, and we are doing our best to live up to your high expectations of Apple.

Steve Jobs
Apple CEO

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Here is my reply:

Dear Steve,

You have balls of steel and I commend you for the seriously gutsy move. Much props. Although your stock will get destroyed in the short term, I think you are right that this is the right thing to do for now and that everyone will see the wisdom in this move. You’re in this for the long term and it’s about the customers, not the investors. As both, I would like to say that even as an investor, this is the right move.

I made the mistake of selling too soon before, I will not make the same mistake again.

Cheers,
Bagger John

P.S. I caved and bought an iPhone today. Thank you for making the prices more reasonable.




Notes:
In Portfolio: Will be again soon
Duration: I'll never sell you again... ever!
Yay!: Football is upon us!

Feeling Good About the Portfolio

I think one of the most important things about a portfolio is feeling good about it. We all make bad calls on stock and ,no pun intended, we pay for it. Learning to take a loss is extremely important and unfortunately, the #1 thing people say when a stock comes down is: "I'll hold onto it until it comes back". Big Mistake. What a way to keep stale cash. The bottomline is this. Having good stocks that you really believe in is so important. Especially when the market starts to sour. For me, I have reached a point where I love it when the market takes a dump. I see sales when those days happen and I try to dig in more at a discount price.

So in the past, I have took a position in Roxio and man did I ever get burned on that one. It's been so good until recently however when you take a bad loss, you need to re-evaluate. Unfortunately for the stock, Loopnet happened to hit 17.69 and the decision was easy, I got out of SNIC and got into LOOP. It rebounded to 18.5 and Roxio is still where it was. But the most important thing is I feel good about the portfolio. I got rid of the losers (which will in all likeliness still be losers) and picked up a winner that everyone is salivating over now. Even more important is that if it drops even more, you know I'll be getting in more.

Moral of the story. Sell when it makes sense. Buy into things you really believe in. Enough said.

11,500

So it's coming, a big correction is looming and you have to ask yourself, do you have cash on the sidelines ready to take advantage when the time is right?

JJ: i wonder if this is the beginning of the 20% correction
JJ: down to like 11,500 for the DOW
JJ: i think some of the more conservative types
JJ: (including the Fed)
JJ: think that is a more realistic level

John: I agree the recent economy is way over inflated and one has to ask what has the recent good times been based on? The apple iPhone?

To me, it's all false hope that has been driving the recent good times. The average cost of living for america has gone up and the average worth of a dollar has gone down. Meanwhile... salaries are not moving. What it means is... America is buying on borrowed money. America is living on borrowed money and frankly... in the short term it means, as my buddy JSeezieFoShizzie likes to say, "sexy times"

People are getting what they want. But now... now that they have maxed out their credit cards, they're coming back down into reality "that shit... I can't spend like I used to" and "oh man, that 'credit' thing is kinda important."

So now... back to normal spending... and worse for the economy it's time for the consumer to start paying back what it borrowed. So with that being said, YES! the DOW should be back around 11,500. I hope to see you all there with money in hand.

Time to double down

So I've made some solid bets so far in 2007 and I've cashed out on my short terms shares already. With the recent loan crisis and subprime crash, opportunity is everywhere but especially with a handful of proven winners! Time to restock!

So here's what I see:

LOOP (LoopNet): I originally got in at 14 and it shot up to 27. This morning, it clocked in at 17.85 and for a company who has beaten estimates 5 quarters in a row, I think this is a bargain price to get in at.

VLO (Valero): We got in on this badboy at 50 and it shot up to 78. Right now it's back at 60 and it's still dropping. It's still driving season and I'm telling you right now, oil is not coming down especially with Labor Day looming. I'll be looking much more seriously at our country's dominant sour crude refinery at around $55

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Newbie to the BaggerJohn Radar is BWLD (Buffalo Wild Wings): The stock exploded from $8($15) to $95($48) this year and then split. it's down to $32 a share from the post-split price of $48 and I'm definitely going to take a lookie.

OLED (Cambridge Display): YEEEEEEEEEE-HAAAAAAAAAAAW!!! VIVA OLED REVOLUTION!

It's beginning! Yes sir it is. I looked a while back into Cambridge Display and between that and Universal Display (PANL), PANL was easily the way to go. Cambridge doesn't hold a candle to Universal Displays technology, patent ownership and penetration and just today, it agreed to be bought out by Sumitomo Chemical for $12 a share. They are essentially buying their expertise, not their tech. And look, off to the races. OLED has doubled in one day. Now even tho I don't own it. I have a solid understanding of the Organic LED space and this just means nothing but good news for the industry in general where there were really only 2: The champ, PANL and the distant runnerup OLED. To me, it's just validation that investing in this space is a good bet.

PANL's technology is already showing up in a number of consumer devices that debut earlier in the year. From Samsung Laptops with OLED backlights that double the battery life, to Sony MP3 players that have 50 hours of life to the big mama, Sony OLED TVs that are 3 millimeters (MILLIMETERS!) thick and have 1,000,000 to 1 contrast ratio that has imagery that's better than life. In comparison, the best offering currently out there besides OLED TV is 14,000 to 1.

According to my calculations, if PANL were to be bought out in a similar fashion that OLED was, it would be a $35 - $40 dollar stock. So yes, today was OLED's day but I patiently await PANL's homecoming. VIVA ORGANIC LED!

Read more about Cambridge's Takeover