Monday, June 25, 2007

ISV (Insite Vision): Waiting to be Cleared for Take-Off

This share totally perplexes me. It's a company with a lot of success in getting products approved by the FDA yet investors have ignored it. Well, not this investor. I'm deep into this bad boy and I'm going to wait patiently until ground control gives us clearance for take-off.

So why am I sitting pretty? Back in April, InSite Vision won FDA approval for lead product AzaSite, which treats certain eye infections. It's planning a late-third-quarter domestic product launch from partner Inspire Pharmaceuticals which licensed the product back in February. If you need estimates, AzaSite is expected to launch in the late third quarter of this year, and Inspire has provided full-year 2008 sales guidance of $30 million to $45 million. My peak domestic sales estimate for AzaSite is $100 million in 2010, or roughly a 25% share of what should be a $417 million market, assuming just 5% compounded growth. So what it comes down to is that this is a company that currently makes no money and the estimates listed above are terribly conservative in that they don't even make mention of international sales at all.

I might also mention the public desire for this stock to be bought out by Inspire Pharma for $4-$5 a share.

In Portfolio: In at 1.38
Duration: For the longterm Baby!
Remember: Snoopy Sno-Cone Machines?

Tuesday, June 5, 2007

AMZN (Amazon): ... What in the World is Going On!?

What the hell!? They outline a strategy for China and the stock shoots up even more. This stock reminds of the game Topple. How much higher can it go?

Reasons to short:

1) P/E is 125 Google is 45.01 (the stock is at $500+) and AAPL is 38.81 ($122+).
2) They have one (ONE!) profitable quarter in all of their existence.
3) The Chinese market is notorious for things that can be pirated, copied or downloaded.
4) China's Market is currently getting pummeled.

As always, we'll see. I will personally say that I'm a little fearful of this one but seriously, this has gotten out of hand. Time for this balloon to come back to earth.

In Portfolio: Short Selling at 74
Duration: Just a few bucks. The scary thing about this stock is that I don't think the stupid thing is done growing
NBA Finals Prediction: As much as I want LeBron to win. Really, it'd be dumb to go against the Spurs.