Monday, October 29, 2007

The $50 Stock I Should Have Bought More Of

It's painful... The $50 stock that I should have bought a lot of... I didn't and the stock that I did buy more units in, I should have held on. Let's take a look at VMW and PRAA.

So VMW has soared from 50 to 120 within 3 months. PRAA has had a 3 month drop from 55 to an after hours low of 43. No Fun. So let's take a look at the scenario, If we bought 500 shares of VMW, you would have made 35k in less than 3 months. If you bought PRAA, you would have lost 6k. That's a 41k swing. Bottomline, Ouch.

So the reality is, I did buy some of both and yes, PRAA more than VMW. I did however, buy PRAA... at 46. Not horrible but not 140%. Something to think about.

In Portfolio: Both
Duration: Holding
Can't Wait: The NBA Season: I'm excited about Houston and Boston.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Embrace the Pain

Seriously folks. Don't be afraid of the pain. Everyone's been saying that there's going to be a lot of volatility going into the holiday season. So keep the poise. Better times are a coming. Literally it's T-minus - 7 (days).

Monday, October 22, 2007

AAPL (Apple): A Lesson in Holding & Have We Missed the Train?

Man, a while back, I had a nice stake in Apple at $35 and I sold when it doubled. Not a bad trade but back then, I knew that Apple was doing something special. Really special. I knew that even tho it only had 2% of the market, 5% or even 10% was not out of reach. So why did I sell? Well, history. Apple had a reputation for doing well and self destructing and it did it time and time again in the past. Now it's at $180 and although I don't feel bad, there are two lessons to remember that I hold dearly to now.

1) If you really believe in a stock... show some faith.
2) If you have to make a trade... set shares aside for the long term.

So the big burning question is... Apple is at $180 and is it too late to get in? Well, I have to ask when Google was $300 a share, was it too late to get in? Golly, it's $650 now. Me personally, I think it's not too late. It's still only 2-3% of the total computer market and the iPhone story is just beginning and it's going to be exciting to watch it grow in the coming generations. So ya, I personally think it's still a good time to get in.

Just remember, the big story is... people are actually buying the computers now.

Cheers, Bagger John.

In Portfolio: Yes
Duration: Forever
Yum: Steak and Egg Chipotle Burrito for Jack in the Box

Friday, October 19, 2007

eBay (eBay Inc...): Buy Victoriously

So I always short when a stock shoots up undeservedly. I remember about 4 months ago when Yahoo! shot up from 27 to 33 in day on rumors of a bogus Microsoft buyout rumor. Short city.

In turn, I always buy when a stock gets pummeled undeservedly. eBay after 3 months of monster earnings and a clear beat this recent Q3. has dropped from 44 in after hours to 36.5!!? Are you freaking kidding me! It's not deserved.

If you are smart. I'd buy in at the nice $36 price and keep on buying down because I believe by Christmas, we're looking at $50.


UPDATE TO BLOG (Since my post this morning)


EBAY; $36.9

"After Wednesday close, eBay posted third quarter results better than we projected. Management raised forward guidance, and we increased our estimates. After rising to nearly $44 in after-hours trading following Wednesday's results, the stock has fallen more than 16%. We now see it as compelling value at 21X our 2008 EPS view, a discount to peers and to the 3-year EPS growth rate we see at 33% and well under our $50 target price. We believe the marketplaces segment is healthy and will benefit from increasing advertising activity, PayPal will continue to expand rapidly, and Skype will be better managed. /S. Kessler"

eBay Slide Brings Bargain
By Vishesh Kumar, Senior Writer
"We expect the stock to benefit post any potential knee-jerk skepticism on fee changes or started 2008 swing factors given that ultimately Street estimates are going higher and that there is potential for multiple expansion due to the GMV acceleration in 3Q and the potential for GMV and listings to accelerate in 4Q2007."

With so many positive developments, this short-term selloff could present an attractive chance to buy.



Thursday, October 18, 2007

EBAY (eBay Inc...): Hold Victoriously

OK guys, I know what you are all thinking... Double-You, Teee, Efff... HA! I know huh? The stock totally blows out expectations and is back on track and rolls to 44 in after hours and then the next day... drops to 38. Ya... WTF.

For me personally, I think it's going to take some time for the good news to sink in. So let's all practice a little patience. As the Christmas draws closer, the bad news will finally succumb to the good. Items are converting at a higher rate and selling for more. And this is the third quarter in a row that eBay has exceeded expectations. And let's not forget that this quarter was a clean beat. It didn't go to the cards, it was a knock-out.

Let's also not forget that this Christmas season, there is no got to give gift. Well, maybe those new iPods but golly, those cost a pretty penny. So seriously, there is no reason why this stock shouldn't be back to the 50's. Heck, even the analysts think so.

Barron's just raised price target to $54 and many others think it'll be at $50 by the holiday season so for now, so let's all take a collective deep breath and close our eyes. Before we all know it, it'll be Christmas for all.

In Portfolio: Oh dear, more than you know.
Duration: Until it's Christmas
Big Question: How in the world did Sylar end up on that road in Mexico? (Heroes Reference)

Monday, October 15, 2007

VMW (VM Ware) & EMC (EMC Corp): To the moon ... To the moon...!

Gosh, I remember a couple of years I started trading when EMC was rocking $120 a share. Man, that was such a loooong time ago. I also remember the drop... oh my and from such heights did they fall. It was one of the times you look at the picture you had of Warren Buffett on your wall and said, "damn you for telling me not to sell."

It was rough for a long long time. Well, then one day, EMC bought a 90% stake in a tiny virtualization company called VM Ware and at the same time, paid for their salvation. Since then, the company has dug itself out of it's $5 grave and since soared to $22+ and with a little hope, back to such great heights of maybe $120.

The virtualization industry is bigger than we know. We'l You'll see.

In Portfolio: A pinch (VMW) and a dash (EMC)
Duration: Warran B is back on the wall
Football Notes: Two weeks from now... Indy will be annihilated by the Pats

Tuesday, October 9, 2007

PANL (Universal Display): Maximizing the Movement

So I'm about to conduct a small experiment. Right now, I'm only using 50% of the total movement of PANL which is all upwards and then waiting for it to drop back down to 14-15 range and then rebuying. All that downward movement is being wasted and gosh darnit! I'm not taking it anymore.

I normally only short stocks that are undeserving of a crazy jump in price however PANL although, a total long termer, has been stuck in the volatility trade winds for a the last year and until they figure out the Blue situation, they'll probably continue to do so.

Anyways, I sold the last 3 units of my trader shares for PANL at 19 and shorted PANL at 19.31 for 1 unit just to test it out. Let's hope PANL is like a rollercoaster and as is fun going down as it is going up.

In Portfolio: Still got my long termers and I'm holding them until PANL gets bought out.
Duration: Forever and ever and ever
Dallas or New England: I got New England in a big way.