Wednesday, November 28, 2007

The Oil Watch Begins

Every year, I have a cycle where I buy oil in the winter and hold till the summer time. This year is no different. Hybrid car prices haven't come down and public transportation hasn't gotten better (especially in my area) so the demand is going to be there. And like it or not, We're going to be paying $4 bucks a gallon for oil.

Saturday, November 17, 2007

AAPL (Apple): A Picture is Worth Two Words

I had to go to the Apple Store to buy a backup charger. So the one in my area closes at 9 and I got to the mall at 8:45 PM. All the stores were closing up and there was like 2 or 3 people per store as I was walking to the Apple Store. So I get there and here is what I saw.

Two Words: Strong Buy

In Portfolio: Yes
Duration: Until Steve Jobs dies
Did I buy anything else: iPhone Accessories and the uber thin wireless keyboard that I'm typing on now.

ETFC (E*trade): Wow... Emo Overload

What an emo overload. So rumors have it that the company is going bankrupt. Well, only if you all don't shut up. Let's not make this a self fulfilling prophecy.

So the big question is whether or not we buy in after such a massive drop in price. It's a tough one but if you're bold. The answer is yes. I have personally recorded 2 other times I have seen such an over reaction. First time it was with Nuvelo (NUVO) when the market shot it up 60 percent on news that it was to be fast tracked. It was the first time I've ever seen such a reaction so I held on until it started crashing and then bailed with a 30 percent gain. Turns out a lot of potential drugs are fast tracked. The very next day, it came right back down. Yahoo! (YHOO) shot up from 24 to 33 in one day when rumors that Microsoft would buy them out. Not so, the stock shot right back down to 22 once all the hot air escaped. I sold what I did have and shorted immediately. It was a nice double swing.

So once again we find ourselves in a similar position. This time around, after a massive drop. So what to do

I'm going to hold off on this one personally since the times are bad. Every day, more negative news is coming out of the financial sector and it's really scary. Also, with the other two stocks, it was a better time. A more stable time. So for now. I'll pass. Besides... AAPL is relatively low and the stores are elbow to elbow.

In Portfolio: Nope
Duration: n/a
Post Mortem: It actually shot back up 5 bucks and then back down to the high 3s / low 4's.

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Wow, it's been crazy huh? But don't go crazy. Keep your head. Breathe.

So let's reiterate some rules to ourselves.

1) We are investors. Think of the long term. When you buy, don't look at is as how much I'm spending but rather, how much I'll be making.

2) Be disciplined about adding to your position. Sustained market crashes are a good thing. It allows investors to get in at great prices. But be good about it. Set your ideal price and wait for it. If you don't get it... you don't get it. No biggie.

3) Keep a portion of your stocks for the long and if you have the urge to sell. Keep a portion for the short. Keep a trade a trade and an investment an investment.

AAPL (Apple) - I own it. I use it. I love it. Their product has effectively changed my life. Add to it with every $10 drop. I'm willing to go 3x on this if the price is right.

AEO (American Eagle Outfitters) - I'm not a fan of AEO however I love what TMP has on it. I'll add to my current position but 1 unit MAX!

AMD (Uh... AMD) - Not looking so bright right now but now is not the time to get out. sell around 13ish.

ARNA (Arena Pharmaceuticals) - I love this stock. I think they will do amazing in the future. Just gotta wait it out Big Time. This is a Buy and Trade stock.

BWLD (Buffulo Wild Wings) - Triple Pick but very volatile. I will have 1/2 invest and 1/2 for trade.

EMC (VM Ware) - VM Ware is all I have to say. Anything that allows companies to be more efficient and save a ton of money is worth it. I'm going to add to my position as it goes down.

ISV (Insite Vision) - Showing profit! They are doing well and will continue to grow. It's product costs the same and is more effective. It's worth it. Hold but do not add anymore.

LOOP (LoopNet) - Triple Pick. I think the lesson learned is that you have to be disciplined about keeping a trade a trade. I've always had long term shares for this bad boy but after hitting 24 and rocking 16.5 today... You learn about it. Like BWLD, 1/2 hold and 1/2 trade.

PANL (Universal Display) - Now I stuck to my guns on this one and its doing great for me. Sold my trader shares at 19 and waiting for it to hit 14.5 again.

PRAA (Portfolio Recovery) - I wasn't disciplined about adding to my position. But it may have hit a bottom. The great news is that it's a stock that really feeds off the sub-prime and debt crisis.

SBUX (Strabucks) - Wow... I really don't know about this one.

EBAY - I really have no choice but to hold. Hope the holiday cheer helps this one.

- Hmmm... Hold for a while and see what happens. It blew the doors off earnings and hit 21 but dropped hard. Typical short term peak.

VMW - Big Drop recently. I'm going to hold and see where it settles and then add to my position.


- The Market will be choppy for the next year until the economy gets it's feet underneath itself. So definitely keep long termers but for me, 1/2 of my shares will be trader shares that will go with the ebb and flow of the market.