Wednesday, January 23, 2008

The Death of the ClickWheel = iPod Rebirth

Apple is down... waaay down. Big deal. Buy More. I am.

So listening to the investor call yesterday the main thing that stood out to me besides the outlook was the growth of iPod sales. As we all know, it's much flatter today than it was in previous years and I guess we can all point to market saturation in the US for that (They say it growing really well ouside the States) . However, one thing was said yesterday that just stuck in my head (paraphrased): "We wanted to establish a new kind of iPod (Touch) in the marketplace."

A light bulb went off in my head and I realized that this is where the growth will be coming from in the future. Let's get serious, if you have a click-wheel iPod, you really don't need another. It would make you think twice about getting one. But I realized just like iPhone (I know this is obvious to all) this is a product that will evolve as time passes. Once the developer kit is released, there will hundreds of applications/games/features that people can download for their iPod touch. Pretty much it'll do waaaay more than what a clickwheel iPod does today. It pretty much does already with web browsing, youTube and email.

The competition pretty much has caught up with Apple in terms of click-wheel clone mp3 players. But they don't hold a candle to the touch in terms of applications and the fact that it will only get better as more apps are created for it by 3rd parties.

Although the click-wheel has been the heart and soul of the iPod empire, leave it to Apple to get rid of convention and come up with something better.


And if you need additional reasons:

1) mac sales are soaring. We're a little above 5% but is it really
that hard to believe that it could hit 10% marketshare or even 20%?

Fun stat for everyone: Over 60% of college freshman went to school
with a mac.

2) macbook air is actually selling. I saw it yesterday at #2 but it's
at #4... behind 3 other macs on Amazon.

3) the iPhone story is still in it's infancy.

4) Apple is spreading internationally, You gotta love the weak dollar in this situation.

In Portfolio: Just bought more!
Duration: Until Steve Jobs dies
Can't Wait: DEEEETROIT Auto Show this weekend!

Wednesday, January 2, 2008

NFLX (NetFlix): I want to short this badly...

Welcome to 2008. My overall thoughts just like everyone else's is that it will be a choppy year however I truly believe there will be opportunity to profit if we're smart about it. I think there will be a rise after 1st quarter earnings but anything will be erased once gas prices hit four dollars and subprime reminds us that it hasn't completely gone away.

So to bein the new year, I want to short NetFlix. My main reason is Apple is rumored to be delivering HD movie rentals to the door now. Frankly, Apple can do it. It has the infrastructure and the following in place to do it. Also, it's at an all time high with the recent upgrades. I'm sure they haven't accounted for that. If I can, I'm going to short.