ETFC (E*trade): Wow... Emo Overload

What an emo overload. So rumors have it that the company is going bankrupt. Well, only if you all don't shut up. Let's not make this a self fulfilling prophecy.

So the big question is whether or not we buy in after such a massive drop in price. It's a tough one but if you're bold. The answer is yes. I have personally recorded 2 other times I have seen such an over reaction. First time it was with Nuvelo (NUVO) when the market shot it up 60 percent on news that it was to be fast tracked. It was the first time I've ever seen such a reaction so I held on until it started crashing and then bailed with a 30 percent gain. Turns out a lot of potential drugs are fast tracked. The very next day, it came right back down. Yahoo! (YHOO) shot up from 24 to 33 in one day when rumors that Microsoft would buy them out. Not so, the stock shot right back down to 22 once all the hot air escaped. I sold what I did have and shorted immediately. It was a nice double swing.

So once again we find ourselves in a similar position. This time around, after a massive drop. So what to do

I'm going to hold off on this one personally since the times are bad. Every day, more negative news is coming out of the financial sector and it's really scary. Also, with the other two stocks, it was a better time. A more stable time. So for now. I'll pass. Besides... AAPL is relatively low and the stores are elbow to elbow.



Notes:
In Portfolio: Nope
Duration: n/a
Post Mortem: It actually shot back up 5 bucks and then back down to the high 3s / low 4's.

An Old Portfolio of EX-52 Week Lowbies

I was cleaning out an old watch list I had on Yahoo! Finance called "52 Week Lowbies". As the name suggests, it's a list of well known large cap companies that were at uh... well 52 week lows however over the course of a year, dominated (for the most part). Let's check them out:

PLT (Plantronics): $14.80 August 2006 - $25.95 May 2007 (75%)
WMT (Walmart): $42.31 July 2006 - 52.15 November 2006 (20%)
GPS (Gap): $15.91 July 2006 - $21.39 January 2007 (25%)
ARO (Aeropostale): $21.07 July 2006 - $45.19 (Today!) May 2007 (114%)
FINL (Finish Line): $9.55 August 2006 - $14.97 November 2006 (58%)
YHOO (Yahoo!): $22.65 September 2006 - $33.74 April 2007 (51%)
TTWO (Take Two Interactive): $9.06 July 2006 - $24.80 April 2007 (173%)
CSCO (Cisco): $17.10 August 2006 - $28.99 May 2007 (69%)
CMCSA (Comcast): $20.47 July 2006 - 30.18 Jan 2007 (50%)

Although I have recently hated on large caps *cough* DAMNYAHOO *cough* the truth of the matter is that companies with proven business models usually rebound. Just another lesson in Buying Low and Selling High and if you did with this lot of stock, well my friend, we would be in pretty decent shape now.

So! I'm sure the burning question is... what's next? Well, I have a very short list (The market's been good to us) of stocks that are still at unusual lows. Here they are:

SBUX (Starbucks): $29.60 - 52 week high is $40 (42%)
MO (Altria): $68.30 - 52 week high is $90 (31%)
MOT (Motorola): $18.00 - 52 week high is $26.3 (45%)
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): $14.00 - 52 week high is $40.00 (185%)

So there are my handful of stocks. I personally own SBUX and AMD and I'm seriously looking at MO and MOT now. As always, do your own research before buying and I'll keep adding to this list as I come across them.

YHOO (Yahoo!): Yahoosoft? Microhoo!? Yacrohoosoft?

Like the names in the title of this entry, the rumor of Microsoft buying out Yahoo! is silly. So let's get the details on this deal:

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"Shares of Yahoo Inc. soared as much as 19 percent to their highest level in nearly a year on Friday after two newspaper reports said the company and Microsoft Corp. were in preliminary merger talks to take on common foe Google Inc."

later that day...

"About 15 minutes before the end of Friday's session, the Wall Street Journal, citing a source, reported that merger talks with Microsoft were 'not active.'"

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So when I woke up Friday Morning and saw Yahoo! at 33.4 and read the hot air, the first thing I did was made sure my mother and fiance sold all the Yahoo! they had and then the moment after, I shorted the hell out of it. There is no way that this is going to happen. There are too many issues with this. The ones that stand out to me are:

1) Yang and Filo (The founders of Yahoo!) hate Microsoft. Executive support is sorta important in decisions like this ya know?

2) They're selling when Project Panama (Yahoo!'s new ad platform that's supposed to help them compete with Google) hasn't even had a chance to take off. And what's the point of selling now? All the Panama hype was already killed after Q1 earnings reports.

3) Culture Clash: There will be a mass Yahoo! employee exodus if Microsoft succeeds.

4) Anti-trust concerns

I don't know about you all, but I'm going to ride this hot air balloon back down to earth.

And while you're at it short Microsoft too. A bunch of companies are creating online tools so you'l never need to buy word, excel, powerpoint ever again.




Notes:
In Portfolio: You mean out right? I just sold shares I don't own.
Duration: Will be short. It'll hit the 20's soon and I'll cover then.
If athletes were stock: Dirk Nowitzki just crashed.

YHOO (Yahoo!): Question of the Day: 25 or 32?

Wow, that was a drop. The market is a total heart breaker sometimes. Let me be the first to tell you that it was a punch in the midsection to watch my nest egg at 32 be decimated 4 bucks the next morning. My stop automatically kicked in at 28 for a tiny gain... I <3 the market (Yes, I'm being sarcastic). There really was nothing I could have done about it. It opened at $28 and I can't always be around for after hours. Meh... Shit happens.

Now the reason I didn't write about this earlier is because I wanted to wait for Google to report earnings so that I could get a better understanding of the Ad Word landscape. Also, since I do not have the money nor the balls to invest into a $500 dollar stock, this will strictly be about the Y!

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So let's look at the two. Yahoo! fell 11.8% to $28.31 on volume nearly triple the stock's full-day average. Quarterly profit dropped 11% on higher operating costs, as the No. 1 operator of Web sites by traffic spent heavily to better compete against rival Google Inc. Net income for the first quarter fell 11% to $142 million, or 10 cents a share, from $159.9 million, or 11 cents, earned in the year-earlier period. Analysts had, on average, expected a profit of 11 cents a share, according to a Thomson Financial survey. Sales rose 7% to $1.67 billion on stronger demand for the company's online display advertisements and a surge in sales of text-only search ads late in quarter. OK, not too bad. A penny shy on inflated expectations that Yahoo!'s new ad word engine would come through early.

Google reported revenues of $3.66 billion for the quarter ended March 31, 2007, an increase of 63% compared to the first quarter of 2006 and an increase of 14% compared to the fourth quarter of 2006. Google reports its revenues, consistent with GAAP, on a gross basis without deducting traffic acquisition costs, or TAC. In the first quarter of 2007, TAC totaled $1.13 billion, or 31% of advertising revenues. In other words... Google ... Crushed... Yahoo!

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So here's my take on things. Yahoo! execs already told us to set our expectations with their new ad word platform, Panama, and told us not to expect anything to happen until Q3 of 2007. I think with any launch, it takes time to gain traction. On the buyer side, I think they need to see how well the new product performs and on Yahoo!'s side there will be a ton of adjustments made along the way. I think the turkey is still in the oven. So the big question is, will YHOO hit 25 first or rebound back to 32?

This is where Google steps in. I think the overwhelming mentality is that YHOO just can't compete. Just as investors were falling in love with the Big Purple again, Google reminds you why you settled down with it in the first place with yet another "I'm still the hot, sexy mama that locked down your candy ass" quarter. That combined with the usual weak Q2 and Q3 for internet companies will make me lean towards betting that the stock hits $25 (maybe lower) first.

And yes, for those of your who are wondering. If I had the 7 figure account, I would have definitely bought Google at $435.




Notes:
In Portfolio: Just got out... time to watch.
Investing Mindset: F-Large Caps... Go Smallies
NBA Playoff Hopes: I'm shouting "GO ROCKETS!" and I'm whispering "go lakers" ;)

Resolve, Resolve, Resolve

I think it's appropiate to write now that the market has been taken out to the woodshed and been given the beating of a lifetime. Like everyone else, I'm still bleeding... badly. So the question is, what do you do? The bleeding seems to never end and yes, it's scary... really, really scary.

So let's pull it back a little and go through the list and see how we are doing? Well, first off, I'm in much better shape than from where we started (I'm where I started with the market down 15% from where I started). OK, so we're in good shape. So let's take a look at the picks and re-evaluate. Sell the ones that we're not confident in, and keep (maybe invest more into) the stocks that we like.

I guess what I'm trying to say is this: If you really like your picks, why are you bailing out so early? It's easy to stay in when things are good however I will personally say that my best gains have come from sticking it out; In and out of the stock market.

So here's mine, how did yours pan out?

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AMD - Yes, They are getting their asses kicked but at some point, they're going to turn the corner and I'm going to be there. It doesn't have much more to fall but buy more as it goes down. Accumulate.

BBI - I still like this stock. It's a superior product to Netflix and they are already laying the groundwork for online downloads. To $20 Scotty! Hold.

COGT - Pursuing more than 20 significant projects in more than 15 countries and any new contracts will send this bad boy soaring. It'll disappear if it goes any lower. Hold.

EXEL - Just like Cogent. It has so many products in the pipeline and is so small that any approval will send this bad boy soaring. Accumulate.

GTW - Ya ya, but I only have a small bet for a turnaround prospect. Leave me alone. Hold.

ISV - It's a 5 star stock on CAPS and is at a low price but I'm ashamed to admit that I only bought the stock because my fiance has it as well. Can't let her have all the fun. Besides, it's a tiny bet. Hold.

WFMI - Now I got out of this one after it jumped 5 dollars two weeks ago. I've always been iffy on a couple of sectors and they are the airline industry and the supermarket industry. Sell

LOOP - It's still higher than the $13.50 price that I got into it with. I'm personally am excited about this one. Hold.

PANL - I am so enamored by the potential of this company's technology. It's lower than what I bought it at and I'll buy more as it goes down. Accumulate.

RRGB - I have a decent bet in this stock and it's still higher than what I bought it at. I can't wait to see how this one rebounds once the market starts to go back up again. Hold.

SBUX - Near 52 week lows and I will continue to buy more as it goes down. Accumulate.

USO - It's higher than where I bought it at and Crude Oil 'ain't' going nowhere but up. Hold.

VLO - It's much higher than where I bought it at and it's gas. Enough said. Hold.

KANA - I only have a small bet for a turnaround prospect. Haven't lost anything, didn't make anything. To be honest, I'm really just in this stock because my uncle Chuck has this as one of his big potentials. Nothing beats making money with your friends and family. Hold.

YHOO - It's way higher than where I bought it at and Panama is picking up traction earlier than expected. Hold.

ATVI - The game companies are still gaining tracking. I'll be buying more as this stock goes down. Accumulate.