Tuesday, December 18, 2007

Going with the Flow

It's easy to go up but as we all have recently felt, it's been a bloodbath lately. So even though I've done very well this year, the thoughts of paying taxes on my short term gains this year is not very comforting. So with Etrade's announcement of a free Wednesday. I think I'm going to reduce my short term gains for the year by taking some massive losses and rebuying at the lower price. As my homie Tigges says... it's good for the ego.

Wednesday, November 28, 2007

The Oil Watch Begins

Every year, I have a cycle where I buy oil in the winter and hold till the summer time. This year is no different. Hybrid car prices haven't come down and public transportation hasn't gotten better (especially in my area) so the demand is going to be there. And like it or not, We're going to be paying $4 bucks a gallon for oil.


Saturday, November 17, 2007

AAPL (Apple): A Picture is Worth Two Words

I had to go to the Apple Store to buy a backup charger. So the one in my area closes at 9 and I got to the mall at 8:45 PM. All the stores were closing up and there was like 2 or 3 people per store as I was walking to the Apple Store. So I get there and here is what I saw.



Two Words: Strong Buy



Notes:
In Portfolio: Yes
Duration: Until Steve Jobs dies
Did I buy anything else: iPhone Accessories and the uber thin wireless keyboard that I'm typing on now.

ETFC (E*trade): Wow... Emo Overload

What an emo overload. So rumors have it that the company is going bankrupt. Well, only if you all don't shut up. Let's not make this a self fulfilling prophecy.

So the big question is whether or not we buy in after such a massive drop in price. It's a tough one but if you're bold. The answer is yes. I have personally recorded 2 other times I have seen such an over reaction. First time it was with Nuvelo (NUVO) when the market shot it up 60 percent on news that it was to be fast tracked. It was the first time I've ever seen such a reaction so I held on until it started crashing and then bailed with a 30 percent gain. Turns out a lot of potential drugs are fast tracked. The very next day, it came right back down. Yahoo! (YHOO) shot up from 24 to 33 in one day when rumors that Microsoft would buy them out. Not so, the stock shot right back down to 22 once all the hot air escaped. I sold what I did have and shorted immediately. It was a nice double swing.

So once again we find ourselves in a similar position. This time around, after a massive drop. So what to do

I'm going to hold off on this one personally since the times are bad. Every day, more negative news is coming out of the financial sector and it's really scary. Also, with the other two stocks, it was a better time. A more stable time. So for now. I'll pass. Besides... AAPL is relatively low and the stores are elbow to elbow.



Notes:
In Portfolio: Nope
Duration: n/a
Post Mortem: It actually shot back up 5 bucks and then back down to the high 3s / low 4's.

Thursday, November 8, 2007

Wow, it's been crazy huh? But don't go crazy. Keep your head. Breathe.

So let's reiterate some rules to ourselves.

1) We are investors. Think of the long term. When you buy, don't look at is as how much I'm spending but rather, how much I'll be making.

2) Be disciplined about adding to your position. Sustained market crashes are a good thing. It allows investors to get in at great prices. But be good about it. Set your ideal price and wait for it. If you don't get it... you don't get it. No biggie.

3) Keep a portion of your stocks for the long and if you have the urge to sell. Keep a portion for the short. Keep a trade a trade and an investment an investment.

AAPL (Apple) - I own it. I use it. I love it. Their product has effectively changed my life. Add to it with every $10 drop. I'm willing to go 3x on this if the price is right.

AEO (American Eagle Outfitters) - I'm not a fan of AEO however I love what TMP has on it. I'll add to my current position but 1 unit MAX!

AMD (Uh... AMD) - Not looking so bright right now but now is not the time to get out. sell around 13ish.

ARNA (Arena Pharmaceuticals) - I love this stock. I think they will do amazing in the future. Just gotta wait it out Big Time. This is a Buy and Trade stock.

BWLD (Buffulo Wild Wings) - Triple Pick but very volatile. I will have 1/2 invest and 1/2 for trade.

EMC (VM Ware) - VM Ware is all I have to say. Anything that allows companies to be more efficient and save a ton of money is worth it. I'm going to add to my position as it goes down.

ISV (Insite Vision) - Showing profit! They are doing well and will continue to grow. It's product costs the same and is more effective. It's worth it. Hold but do not add anymore.

LOOP (LoopNet) - Triple Pick. I think the lesson learned is that you have to be disciplined about keeping a trade a trade. I've always had long term shares for this bad boy but after hitting 24 and rocking 16.5 today... You learn about it. Like BWLD, 1/2 hold and 1/2 trade.

PANL (Universal Display) - Now I stuck to my guns on this one and its doing great for me. Sold my trader shares at 19 and waiting for it to hit 14.5 again.

PRAA (Portfolio Recovery) - I wasn't disciplined about adding to my position. But it may have hit a bottom. The great news is that it's a stock that really feeds off the sub-prime and debt crisis.

SBUX (Strabucks) - Wow... I really don't know about this one.

EBAY - I really have no choice but to hold. Hope the holiday cheer helps this one.

CRNT
- Hmmm... Hold for a while and see what happens. It blew the doors off earnings and hit 21 but dropped hard. Typical short term peak.

VMW - Big Drop recently. I'm going to hold and see where it settles and then add to my position.

--------

OVERALL STRATEGY
- The Market will be choppy for the next year until the economy gets it's feet underneath itself. So definitely keep long termers but for me, 1/2 of my shares will be trader shares that will go with the ebb and flow of the market.

Monday, October 29, 2007

The $50 Stock I Should Have Bought More Of

It's painful... The $50 stock that I should have bought a lot of... I didn't and the stock that I did buy more units in, I should have held on. Let's take a look at VMW and PRAA.

So VMW has soared from 50 to 120 within 3 months. PRAA has had a 3 month drop from 55 to an after hours low of 43. No Fun. So let's take a look at the scenario, If we bought 500 shares of VMW, you would have made 35k in less than 3 months. If you bought PRAA, you would have lost 6k. That's a 41k swing. Bottomline, Ouch.

So the reality is, I did buy some of both and yes, PRAA more than VMW. I did however, buy PRAA... at 46. Not horrible but not 140%. Something to think about.



Notes:
In Portfolio: Both
Duration: Holding
Can't Wait: The NBA Season: I'm excited about Houston and Boston.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Embrace the Pain

Seriously folks. Don't be afraid of the pain. Everyone's been saying that there's going to be a lot of volatility going into the holiday season. So keep the poise. Better times are a coming. Literally it's T-minus - 7 (days).

Monday, October 22, 2007

AAPL (Apple): A Lesson in Holding & Have We Missed the Train?

Man, a while back, I had a nice stake in Apple at $35 and I sold when it doubled. Not a bad trade but back then, I knew that Apple was doing something special. Really special. I knew that even tho it only had 2% of the market, 5% or even 10% was not out of reach. So why did I sell? Well, history. Apple had a reputation for doing well and self destructing and it did it time and time again in the past. Now it's at $180 and although I don't feel bad, there are two lessons to remember that I hold dearly to now.

1) If you really believe in a stock... show some faith.
2) If you have to make a trade... set shares aside for the long term.

So the big burning question is... Apple is at $180 and is it too late to get in? Well, I have to ask when Google was $300 a share, was it too late to get in? Golly, it's $650 now. Me personally, I think it's not too late. It's still only 2-3% of the total computer market and the iPhone story is just beginning and it's going to be exciting to watch it grow in the coming generations. So ya, I personally think it's still a good time to get in.

Just remember, the big story is... people are actually buying the computers now.

Cheers, Bagger John.



Notes:
In Portfolio: Yes
Duration: Forever
Yum: Steak and Egg Chipotle Burrito for Jack in the Box

Friday, October 19, 2007

eBay (eBay Inc...): Buy Victoriously

So I always short when a stock shoots up undeservedly. I remember about 4 months ago when Yahoo! shot up from 27 to 33 in day on rumors of a bogus Microsoft buyout rumor. Short city.

In turn, I always buy when a stock gets pummeled undeservedly. eBay after 3 months of monster earnings and a clear beat this recent Q3. has dropped from 44 in after hours to 36.5!!? Are you freaking kidding me! It's not deserved.

If you are smart. I'd buy in at the nice $36 price and keep on buying down because I believe by Christmas, we're looking at $50.

---------------

UPDATE TO BLOG (Since my post this morning)


RECENT NEWS:

S&P UPGRADES OPINION ON EBAY INC. SHARES TO STRONG BUY FROM BUY, ON VALUATION
EBAY; $36.9

"After Wednesday close, eBay posted third quarter results better than we projected. Management raised forward guidance, and we increased our estimates. After rising to nearly $44 in after-hours trading following Wednesday's results, the stock has fallen more than 16%. We now see it as compelling value at 21X our 2008 EPS view, a discount to peers and to the 3-year EPS growth rate we see at 33% and well under our $50 target price. We believe the marketplaces segment is healthy and will benefit from increasing advertising activity, PayPal will continue to expand rapidly, and Skype will be better managed. /S. Kessler"

eBay Slide Brings Bargain
By Vishesh Kumar, TheStreet.com Senior Writer
"We expect the stock to benefit post any potential knee-jerk skepticism on fee changes or started 2008 swing factors given that ultimately Street estimates are going higher and that there is potential for multiple expansion due to the GMV acceleration in 3Q and the potential for GMV and listings to accelerate in 4Q2007."

With so many positive developments, this short-term selloff could present an attractive chance to buy.

--------

Boo-yah.

Thursday, October 18, 2007

EBAY (eBay Inc...): Hold Victoriously

OK guys, I know what you are all thinking... Double-You, Teee, Efff... HA! I know huh? The stock totally blows out expectations and is back on track and rolls to 44 in after hours and then the next day... drops to 38. Ya... WTF.

For me personally, I think it's going to take some time for the good news to sink in. So let's all practice a little patience. As the Christmas draws closer, the bad news will finally succumb to the good. Items are converting at a higher rate and selling for more. And this is the third quarter in a row that eBay has exceeded expectations. And let's not forget that this quarter was a clean beat. It didn't go to the cards, it was a knock-out.

Let's also not forget that this Christmas season, there is no got to give gift. Well, maybe those new iPods but golly, those cost a pretty penny. So seriously, there is no reason why this stock shouldn't be back to the 50's. Heck, even the analysts think so.

Barron's just raised price target to $54 and many others think it'll be at $50 by the holiday season so for now, so let's all take a collective deep breath and close our eyes. Before we all know it, it'll be Christmas for all.



Notes:
In Portfolio: Oh dear, more than you know.
Duration: Until it's Christmas
Big Question: How in the world did Sylar end up on that road in Mexico? (Heroes Reference)

Monday, October 15, 2007

VMW (VM Ware) & EMC (EMC Corp): To the moon ... To the moon...!


Gosh, I remember a couple of years I started trading when EMC was rocking $120 a share. Man, that was such a loooong time ago. I also remember the drop... oh my and from such heights did they fall. It was one of the times you look at the picture you had of Warren Buffett on your wall and said, "damn you for telling me not to sell."

It was rough for a long long time. Well, then one day, EMC bought a 90% stake in a tiny virtualization company called VM Ware and at the same time, paid for their salvation. Since then, the company has dug itself out of it's $5 grave and since soared to $22+ and with a little hope, back to such great heights of maybe $120.

The virtualization industry is bigger than we know. We'l You'll see.



Notes:
In Portfolio: A pinch (VMW) and a dash (EMC)
Duration: Warran B is back on the wall
Football Notes: Two weeks from now... Indy will be annihilated by the Pats

Tuesday, October 9, 2007

PANL (Universal Display): Maximizing the Movement

So I'm about to conduct a small experiment. Right now, I'm only using 50% of the total movement of PANL which is all upwards and then waiting for it to drop back down to 14-15 range and then rebuying. All that downward movement is being wasted and gosh darnit! I'm not taking it anymore.

I normally only short stocks that are undeserving of a crazy jump in price however PANL although, a total long termer, has been stuck in the volatility trade winds for a the last year and until they figure out the Blue situation, they'll probably continue to do so.

Anyways, I sold the last 3 units of my trader shares for PANL at 19 and shorted PANL at 19.31 for 1 unit just to test it out. Let's hope PANL is like a rollercoaster and as is fun going down as it is going up.



Notes:
In Portfolio: Still got my long termers and I'm holding them until PANL gets bought out.
Duration: Forever and ever and ever
Dallas or New England: I got New England in a big way.

Sunday, September 30, 2007

T-minus 10...

So September is historically the worst month of the year and November and December are usually the best (the last 12 years, we've only had one down year and it was only down 1%) so the big question of today is... what does October get to be?

Well, if the stock market is like a rocket, October is countdown time and everything is shaking all over the place. In plain english, it's volatile. So it means some potential opportunities before the holiday season to get in some last bets.

Although it's not like September (for 2007, August) where the market had a serious pull back (the deals are screaming), there are still some great buys if you are willing to look. So here are some questions that I'm asking myself and a short answer ... uh... to myself...

Is this the last time we see Apple Stock (AAPL) at 150 (Before it goes to 200+)?

- My guess... ya...

Is Universal Display (PANL) going to give back the gains it had no reason making?

- probably

Is Best Buy (BBY) going to well like it usually does or will be it a dud like last year (that was the exception)?

- No hot device this year, flatscreens not making the margins like they used to... ya... a dud...

Is eBay (EBAY) going to finally explode this year and hit 50-60?

- Yes, *play the Conan the barbarian themesong*, I say they come out swinging in the fourth

and has Amazon (AMZN) finally turned the corner and going to start kicking some serious retail ass?

- Yes, and if they haven't already.

... as always, we'll see. But the point of this entry is for us to keep our eyes open and our order forms ready just in case an opportunity does happen to appear.

Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Hang on tight!

So I haven't written in a while mainly because there really is nothing to say. I've been making a lot of moves recently and I finally got my portfolio to a place where I'm really happy with it. So here's an analysis of what I'm looking at and how I think it will do.

AAPL (Apple) - Do I need to talk about this one?

AMD (uhh... AMD) - New product has been released and with the recent spotlight on Intel's shady practices, Intel will need to "play nice" during these antitrust inquiries so as not to draw additional attention. Let's hope for a recovery on the stock.

ARNA (Arena Pharma) - Passed the safety trials for Lorcraserin easily and announced positive data on their insomnia drug today. There is no reason why this stock should be in the low 11's.

EBAY (...eBay) - It's wintertime and the site doesn't look like crap anymore. I'm hoping for a strong run this holiday season.

GLUU (GLU Mobile) - I'm trying to reduce. Might take a loss at the end of the year.

ISV (Insite Vision) - Azasite is out to market, let's see how it does. Better yet, let's see if Inspire finally buys them out!

LOOP (LoopNet) - Triple Hidden Gem pick that has yet to take off. The other 3 already exploded. The deal with CBG doesn't hurt either =D (if you are wondering... MIDD, CTRP, BWLD are the other 3 members of the triple HG club).

PANL (Universal Display) - UP and Down and on and on. I love the volatility of this one.

SBUX (Starbucks) - It's getting cold and dark again, You gotta love Starbucks in the winter like you love Valero in the summer. Deal with iTunes is intriguing... I want to see what it does.

VMW(VM Ware) - When in Rome...

Overall, I have a lot of optimism and with the Fed dropping the rate half a point with more to come, hopefully investors will be willing to put the money that's been sitting on the sidelines for another run. What do you say all? Let's make some money!

Friday, September 7, 2007

AAPL (Apple Inc): Steve Jobs has Balls of Steel



So Apple recently released their next generation of iPods and dropped the price of their current iPhone by a whopping $200 making all the people who bought the iPhones for $500 and $600, and for lack of a better phrase (but probably most accurately describes the situation), "bust a nut".

In response to the overwhelming outrage, Apple CEO, Steve Jobs released this letter:

--------

To all iPhone customers:

I have received hundreds of emails from iPhone customers who are upset about Apple dropping the price of iPhone by $200 two months after it went on sale. After reading every one of these emails, I have some observations and conclusions.

First, I am sure that we are making the correct decision to lower the price of the 8GB iPhone from $599 to $399, and that now is the right time to do it. iPhone is a breakthrough product, and we have the chance to 'go for it' this holiday season. iPhone is so far ahead of the competition, and now it will be affordable by even more customers. It benefits both Apple and every iPhone user to get as many new customers as possible in the iPhone 'tent'. We strongly believe the $399 price will help us do just that this holiday season.

Second, being in technology for 30+ years I can attest to the fact that the technology road is bumpy. There is always change and improvement, and there is always someone who bought a product before a particular cutoff date and misses the new price or the new operating system or the new whatever. This is life in the technology lane. If you always wait for the next price cut or to buy the new improved model, you'll never buy any technology product because there is always something better and less expensive on the horizon. The good news is that if you buy products from companies that support them well, like Apple tries to do, you will receive years of useful and satisfying service from them even as newer models are introduced.

Third, even though we are making the right decision to lower the price of iPhone, and even though the technology road is bumpy, we need to do a better job taking care of our early iPhone customers as we aggressively go after new ones with a lower price. Our early customers trusted us, and we must live up to that trust with our actions in moments like these.

Therefore, we have decided to offer every iPhone customer who purchased an iPhone from either Apple or AT&T, and who is not receiving a rebate or any other consideration, a $100 store credit towards the purchase of any product at an Apple Retail Store or the Apple Online Store. Details are still being worked out and will be posted on Apple's website next week. Stay tuned.

We want to do the right thing for our valued iPhone customers. We apologize for disappointing some of you, and we are doing our best to live up to your high expectations of Apple.

Steve Jobs
Apple CEO

--------

Here is my reply:

Dear Steve,

You have balls of steel and I commend you for the seriously gutsy move. Much props. Although your stock will get destroyed in the short term, I think you are right that this is the right thing to do for now and that everyone will see the wisdom in this move. You’re in this for the long term and it’s about the customers, not the investors. As both, I would like to say that even as an investor, this is the right move.

I made the mistake of selling too soon before, I will not make the same mistake again.

Cheers,
Bagger John

P.S. I caved and bought an iPhone today. Thank you for making the prices more reasonable.




Notes:
In Portfolio: Will be again soon
Duration: I'll never sell you again... ever!
Yay!: Football is upon us!

Thursday, September 6, 2007

Feeling Good About the Portfolio

I think one of the most important things about a portfolio is feeling good about it. We all make bad calls on stock and ,no pun intended, we pay for it. Learning to take a loss is extremely important and unfortunately, the #1 thing people say when a stock comes down is: "I'll hold onto it until it comes back". Big Mistake. What a way to keep stale cash. The bottomline is this. Having good stocks that you really believe in is so important. Especially when the market starts to sour. For me, I have reached a point where I love it when the market takes a dump. I see sales when those days happen and I try to dig in more at a discount price.

So in the past, I have took a position in Roxio and man did I ever get burned on that one. It's been so good until recently however when you take a bad loss, you need to re-evaluate. Unfortunately for the stock, Loopnet happened to hit 17.69 and the decision was easy, I got out of SNIC and got into LOOP. It rebounded to 18.5 and Roxio is still where it was. But the most important thing is I feel good about the portfolio. I got rid of the losers (which will in all likeliness still be losers) and picked up a winner that everyone is salivating over now. Even more important is that if it drops even more, you know I'll be getting in more.

Moral of the story. Sell when it makes sense. Buy into things you really believe in. Enough said.

Friday, August 10, 2007

11,500

So it's coming, a big correction is looming and you have to ask yourself, do you have cash on the sidelines ready to take advantage when the time is right?

JJ: i wonder if this is the beginning of the 20% correction
JJ: down to like 11,500 for the DOW
JJ: i think some of the more conservative types
JJ: (including the Fed)
JJ: think that is a more realistic level

John: I agree the recent economy is way over inflated and one has to ask what has the recent good times been based on? The apple iPhone?

To me, it's all false hope that has been driving the recent good times. The average cost of living for america has gone up and the average worth of a dollar has gone down. Meanwhile... salaries are not moving. What it means is... America is buying on borrowed money. America is living on borrowed money and frankly... in the short term it means, as my buddy JSeezieFoShizzie likes to say, "sexy times"

People are getting what they want. But now... now that they have maxed out their credit cards, they're coming back down into reality "that shit... I can't spend like I used to" and "oh man, that 'credit' thing is kinda important."

So now... back to normal spending... and worse for the economy it's time for the consumer to start paying back what it borrowed. So with that being said, YES! the DOW should be back around 11,500. I hope to see you all there with money in hand.

Monday, August 6, 2007

Time to double down

So I've made some solid bets so far in 2007 and I've cashed out on my short terms shares already. With the recent loan crisis and subprime crash, opportunity is everywhere but especially with a handful of proven winners! Time to restock!

So here's what I see:

LOOP (LoopNet): I originally got in at 14 and it shot up to 27. This morning, it clocked in at 17.85 and for a company who has beaten estimates 5 quarters in a row, I think this is a bargain price to get in at.

VLO (Valero): We got in on this badboy at 50 and it shot up to 78. Right now it's back at 60 and it's still dropping. It's still driving season and I'm telling you right now, oil is not coming down especially with Labor Day looming. I'll be looking much more seriously at our country's dominant sour crude refinery at around $55

--------------------------------------

Newbie to the BaggerJohn Radar is BWLD (Buffalo Wild Wings): The stock exploded from $8($15) to $95($48) this year and then split. it's down to $32 a share from the post-split price of $48 and I'm definitely going to take a lookie.


Tuesday, July 31, 2007

OLED (Cambridge Display): YEEEEEEEEEE-HAAAAAAAAAAAW!!! VIVA OLED REVOLUTION!

It's beginning! Yes sir it is. I looked a while back into Cambridge Display and between that and Universal Display (PANL), PANL was easily the way to go. Cambridge doesn't hold a candle to Universal Displays technology, patent ownership and penetration and just today, it agreed to be bought out by Sumitomo Chemical for $12 a share. They are essentially buying their expertise, not their tech. And look, off to the races. OLED has doubled in one day. Now even tho I don't own it. I have a solid understanding of the Organic LED space and this just means nothing but good news for the industry in general where there were really only 2: The champ, PANL and the distant runnerup OLED. To me, it's just validation that investing in this space is a good bet.

PANL's technology is already showing up in a number of consumer devices that debut earlier in the year. From Samsung Laptops with OLED backlights that double the battery life, to Sony MP3 players that have 50 hours of life to the big mama, Sony OLED TVs that are 3 millimeters (MILLIMETERS!) thick and have 1,000,000 to 1 contrast ratio that has imagery that's better than life. In comparison, the best offering currently out there besides OLED TV is 14,000 to 1.

According to my calculations, if PANL were to be bought out in a similar fashion that OLED was, it would be a $35 - $40 dollar stock. So yes, today was OLED's day but I patiently await PANL's homecoming. VIVA ORGANIC LED!

Read more about Cambridge's Takeover



Friday, July 27, 2007

BUY BUY BUY!!!

There's a SALE! Everything going for 20% off!

Friday, July 20, 2007

EBAY (eBay Inc): What else does this stock have to do!?

OMFG... You have a stock that has soundly beat estimates two quarters in a row and investors still can't go all in with this stock!? You all understand that the second quarter is easily the toughest for eBay. Not so...

eBay delivered better-than-expected second-quarter results with profits that jumped to 50% (That's two quarters in a row we've beat estimates and brought in 50+%) Revenues climbed 30% to hit $1.83 billion. Adjusted earnings soared 34%, landing on the $0.34 per-share mark. The top- and bottom-line showings clocked in slightly ahead of where Wall Street was perched. The magic number was .32. eBay played the part of Houdini.

I just don't understand what's going on. We're making a killing off the weak dollar meaning International Sales add that much more to the bottomline. G-Pay is calling PayPal Daddy and Skype just keeps on growing. Let's not forget that eBay now has advertising dollars and a sick portfolio of companies that include StubHub, Kijiji and Half.

So listings are lower. That's because eBay raised listing fees to reduce the amount of crap on the site. What!? Are they telling me users love a crappy user experience where they have to sift through thousands of worthless listings? Give it time, eBay has announced that they are updating a ton of features on their site during eBay Live.

My call... HOLD... Hold until this stock hits 58 again. Hold on... hopefully just a little bit longer.

Monday, June 25, 2007

ISV (Insite Vision): Waiting to be Cleared for Take-Off

This share totally perplexes me. It's a company with a lot of success in getting products approved by the FDA yet investors have ignored it. Well, not this investor. I'm deep into this bad boy and I'm going to wait patiently until ground control gives us clearance for take-off.

So why am I sitting pretty? Back in April, InSite Vision won FDA approval for lead product AzaSite, which treats certain eye infections. It's planning a late-third-quarter domestic product launch from partner Inspire Pharmaceuticals which licensed the product back in February. If you need estimates, AzaSite is expected to launch in the late third quarter of this year, and Inspire has provided full-year 2008 sales guidance of $30 million to $45 million. My peak domestic sales estimate for AzaSite is $100 million in 2010, or roughly a 25% share of what should be a $417 million market, assuming just 5% compounded growth. So what it comes down to is that this is a company that currently makes no money and the estimates listed above are terribly conservative in that they don't even make mention of international sales at all.

I might also mention the public desire for this stock to be bought out by Inspire Pharma for $4-$5 a share.



Notes:
In Portfolio: In at 1.38
Duration: For the longterm Baby!
Remember: Snoopy Sno-Cone Machines?

Tuesday, June 5, 2007

AMZN (Amazon): ... What in the World is Going On!?

What the hell!? They outline a strategy for China and the stock shoots up even more. This stock reminds of the game Topple. How much higher can it go?

Reasons to short:

1) P/E is 125 Google is 45.01 (the stock is at $500+) and AAPL is 38.81 ($122+).
2) They have one (ONE!) profitable quarter in all of their existence.
3) The Chinese market is notorious for things that can be pirated, copied or downloaded.
4) China's Market is currently getting pummeled.

As always, we'll see. I will personally say that I'm a little fearful of this one but seriously, this has gotten out of hand. Time for this balloon to come back to earth.



Notes:
In Portfolio: Short Selling at 74
Duration: Just a few bucks. The scary thing about this stock is that I don't think the stupid thing is done growing
NBA Finals Prediction: As much as I want LeBron to win. Really, it'd be dumb to go against the Spurs.

Saturday, May 12, 2007

An Old Portfolio of EX-52 Week Lowbies



I was cleaning out an old watch list I had on Yahoo! Finance called "52 Week Lowbies". As the name suggests, it's a list of well known large cap companies that were at uh... well 52 week lows however over the course of a year, dominated (for the most part). Let's check them out:

PLT (Plantronics): $14.80 August 2006 - $25.95 May 2007 (75%)
WMT (Walmart): $42.31 July 2006 - 52.15 November 2006 (20%)
GPS (Gap): $15.91 July 2006 - $21.39 January 2007 (25%)
ARO (Aeropostale): $21.07 July 2006 - $45.19 (Today!) May 2007 (114%)
FINL (Finish Line): $9.55 August 2006 - $14.97 November 2006 (58%)
YHOO (Yahoo!): $22.65 September 2006 - $33.74 April 2007 (51%)
TTWO (Take Two Interactive): $9.06 July 2006 - $24.80 April 2007 (173%)
CSCO (Cisco): $17.10 August 2006 - $28.99 May 2007 (69%)
CMCSA (Comcast): $20.47 July 2006 - 30.18 Jan 2007 (50%)

Although I have recently hated on large caps *cough* DAMNYAHOO *cough* the truth of the matter is that companies with proven business models usually rebound. Just another lesson in Buying Low and Selling High and if you did with this lot of stock, well my friend, we would be in pretty decent shape now.

So! I'm sure the burning question is... what's next? Well, I have a very short list (The market's been good to us) of stocks that are still at unusual lows. Here they are:

SBUX (Starbucks): $29.60 - 52 week high is $40 (42%)
MO (Altria): $68.30 - 52 week high is $90 (31%)
MOT (Motorola): $18.00 - 52 week high is $26.3 (45%)
AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): $14.00 - 52 week high is $40.00 (185%)

So there are my handful of stocks. I personally own SBUX and AMD and I'm seriously looking at MO and MOT now. As always, do your own research before buying and I'll keep adding to this list as I come across them.


Saturday, May 5, 2007

YHOO (Yahoo!): Yahoosoft? Microhoo!? Yacrohoosoft?


Like the names in the title of this entry, the rumor of Microsoft buying out Yahoo! is silly. So let's get the details on this deal:

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"Shares of Yahoo Inc. soared as much as 19 percent to their highest level in nearly a year on Friday after two newspaper reports said the company and Microsoft Corp. were in preliminary merger talks to take on common foe Google Inc."

later that day...

"About 15 minutes before the end of Friday's session, the Wall Street Journal, citing a source, reported that merger talks with Microsoft were 'not active.'"

--------

So when I woke up Friday Morning and saw Yahoo! at 33.4 and read the hot air, the first thing I did was made sure my mother and fiance sold all the Yahoo! they had and then the moment after, I shorted the hell out of it. There is no way that this is going to happen. There are too many issues with this. The ones that stand out to me are:

1) Yang and Filo (The founders of Yahoo!) hate Microsoft. Executive support is sorta important in decisions like this ya know?

2) They're selling when Project Panama (Yahoo!'s new ad platform that's supposed to help them compete with Google) hasn't even had a chance to take off. And what's the point of selling now? All the Panama hype was already killed after Q1 earnings reports.

3) Culture Clash: There will be a mass Yahoo! employee exodus if Microsoft succeeds.

4) Anti-trust concerns

I don't know about you all, but I'm going to ride this hot air balloon back down to earth.

And while you're at it short Microsoft too. A bunch of companies are creating online tools so you'l never need to buy word, excel, powerpoint ever again.




Notes:
In Portfolio: You mean out right? I just sold shares I don't own.
Duration: Will be short. It'll hit the 20's soon and I'll cover then.
If athletes were stock: Dirk Nowitzki just crashed.

Monday, April 30, 2007

SNIC (Sonic Solutions): Living Off the Cycle



You know, there are some stocks that are just worth holding onto long term and then there are some stocks that just don't go anywhere and man, this is one of them. I have never seen it go past 22. however, I have seen it hit $14 five times now. and at least 19 four times before this. So if you played your cards right within the last 3 years, you would have had youself a two-bagger by now. Not shabby for 3 years work.

High Growth stocks aren't the only way to get your baggers. Cyclical trading can be just as good.

This is yet another exercise in buying low and selling high but let's not run into this blindly. We'd be fools to think that it would hit 20+ again just because. So ya, it's the leader in digital media software for PC and ya, it has no debt and a solid cash base but the big thing for me is that it has excellent growth prospects in the next generation of media which is headlined by high definition DVDs (BluRay & HDDVD). The new media formats will spur a new round of software upgrades for Sonic and send it northwards. As always, we'll see.



Notes:
In Portfolio: In at $13 and will buy more as it goes down, if it goes down.
Duration: Start selling off at $18
Let's Go: Warriors, Let's Go! *clap* *clap*

Friday, April 27, 2007

AAPL (Apple Computers): Is It Too Late To Get In?

Golly this is a toughie, Apple just released monsterous earnings and golly, you have to ask yourself what to do in a situation like this. I mean, you have a stock that is pounding 100+ and the memory of it being a 50 dollar stock is still super fresh. If you held it since then, you'd have yourself a single bagger by now. I mean seriously... It's been a beast. Well, before I go on about whether you should get in or not, let's take a look at the lastest results:

"For the first three months of the year, the Cupertino-based company said Wednesday it earned $770 million, or 87 cents per share, up from $410 million, or 47 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Sales were $5.26 billion, up 21 percent from $4.36 billion last year. Analysts, on average, were looking for earnings of 64 cents per share on sales of $5.17 billion, according to a poll by Thomson Financial. Apple said it shipped 1.5 million Macintosh computers and more than 10.5 million iPods during the quarter, representing a 36 percent growth in Macs and 24 percent growth in the music players. Sales from its market-leading iPods and other music-related products accounted for 44 percent of the quarter's total revenue."

So the biggest thing I see is not the profit, the record quarter or how analysts estimates were crushed. What I see is the iPod/iTunes Halo working it's magic to the other thing that Apple does: Computers. I know! ... they make computers? Why yes they do, expensive ass computers that come with really awesome software that allows you to do some pretty awesome stuff. And people are buying them because they now realize that PC's that come with nothing become just as expensive (if not more so) once you buy all the software. Let's face it, as a package, Macs are just superior products with mac only programs that work seamlessly between each other. It amazing when you see iPhoto work with Garage Band and iTunes.

Now onto the big question. Is it too late to get in? My answer is no. It definitely isn't. Apple is still just 2-3% of the market and it's not hard to see them with 10% of the computer market eventually. Apple is finally turning the corner when it comes to iPods making people think twice about getting a Mac instead of a PC.

Will I be getting in? That's a really good question. I think Apple's trek to 10% of the market will be a long but steady one. I think for any patient investor, it's a golden choice once the price settles down a little. Apple just keeps on hitting them out of the park and it's one of the few large CAPs that have Googlesque growth. But that's the thing, It's a large CAP with a high price of entry and it's hard to put money into this. The first thing we have to remind ourselves is that Apple isn't the only company out there with stellar potential and growth. Ya, we might have missed this train or got off too early (Sigh*** what I did) but hey, there is always another train coming right behind it. The second thing we should remember is that although Macs are great products, there are a lot of other machines out there that are very capable as well for much, much less. The third is that unfortunately for Apple, Macs aren't as sticky like iPod/iTunes. There isn't very much personal investment wise that is keeping you from moving to a PC. With iTunes, you need an iPod and after $250 dollars into buying music and movies, you really don't want to go anywhere else. Fortunately for PC users, your iPod will still work on a PC.

So ya, if you are patient, I think Apple will continue to grow as it has for the last 3 years. It's not Google but hey, who is? For me personally, I think I'm going to hold off and not feel sorry for myself for selling early. I see the market a lot more clearly now (without the emotional glasses) and what I see is a ton of opportunity, so long as we are willing to take a bigger risk (oh but there are bigger rewards) and have the insight to see the potential in things.



Notes:
In Portfolio: I already got off this train. Won't be getting back on. Large CAPs can be frustrating at times.
Random Thoughts: Cats aren't clean, they're covered in spit.
Move of the night: Kobe's Triple Pump against the Suns in Game 3 of the first round. Wow.

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

Friday, April 20, 2007

YHOO (Yahoo!): Question of the Day: 25 or 32?

Wow, that was a drop. The market is a total heart breaker sometimes. Let me be the first to tell you that it was a punch in the midsection to watch my nest egg at 32 be decimated 4 bucks the next morning. My stop automatically kicked in at 28 for a tiny gain... I <3 the market (Yes, I'm being sarcastic). There really was nothing I could have done about it. It opened at $28 and I can't always be around for after hours. Meh... Shit happens.

Now the reason I didn't write about this earlier is because I wanted to wait for Google to report earnings so that I could get a better understanding of the Ad Word landscape. Also, since I do not have the money nor the balls to invest into a $500 dollar stock, this will strictly be about the Y!

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So let's look at the two. Yahoo! fell 11.8% to $28.31 on volume nearly triple the stock's full-day average. Quarterly profit dropped 11% on higher operating costs, as the No. 1 operator of Web sites by traffic spent heavily to better compete against rival Google Inc. Net income for the first quarter fell 11% to $142 million, or 10 cents a share, from $159.9 million, or 11 cents, earned in the year-earlier period. Analysts had, on average, expected a profit of 11 cents a share, according to a Thomson Financial survey. Sales rose 7% to $1.67 billion on stronger demand for the company's online display advertisements and a surge in sales of text-only search ads late in quarter. OK, not too bad. A penny shy on inflated expectations that Yahoo!'s new ad word engine would come through early.

Google reported revenues of $3.66 billion for the quarter ended March 31, 2007, an increase of 63% compared to the first quarter of 2006 and an increase of 14% compared to the fourth quarter of 2006. Google reports its revenues, consistent with GAAP, on a gross basis without deducting traffic acquisition costs, or TAC. In the first quarter of 2007, TAC totaled $1.13 billion, or 31% of advertising revenues. In other words... Google ... Crushed... Yahoo!

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So here's my take on things. Yahoo! execs already told us to set our expectations with their new ad word platform, Panama, and told us not to expect anything to happen until Q3 of 2007. I think with any launch, it takes time to gain traction. On the buyer side, I think they need to see how well the new product performs and on Yahoo!'s side there will be a ton of adjustments made along the way. I think the turkey is still in the oven. So the big question is, will YHOO hit 25 first or rebound back to 32?

This is where Google steps in. I think the overwhelming mentality is that YHOO just can't compete. Just as investors were falling in love with the Big Purple again, Google reminds you why you settled down with it in the first place with yet another "I'm still the hot, sexy mama that locked down your candy ass" quarter. That combined with the usual weak Q2 and Q3 for internet companies will make me lean towards betting that the stock hits $25 (maybe lower) first.

And yes, for those of your who are wondering. If I had the 7 figure account, I would have definitely bought Google at $435.




Notes:
In Portfolio: Just got out... time to watch.
Investing Mindset: F-Large Caps... Go Smallies
NBA Playoff Hopes: I'm shouting "GO ROCKETS!" and I'm whispering "go lakers" ;)

Thursday, April 19, 2007

EBAY (eBay Inc): You Can Find It (Sadness) Here!

You know, only with large cap stocks, you can have a situation where a company totally overachieves and still gets penalized for it.

eBay posted a 52 percent jump in net profit on a 27 percent revenue rise, led by growth in its core auctions business and the rising prominence of international sales. On top of that, they also raised the top and bottom line for 2007 Guidance. Wow, that's impressive for a mature company. Really impressive.

Then the next day. The stock drops 10% from it's previous day after hour highs of $36+. I know... WTF. But that's the way the stock market works. It doesn't always make sense. And this is why smart traders can make money. So eBay going to go back up? Ya, probably. But you're going to have to be patient.

Today's fall came as a result of some report from yet another so-called expert. We've all seen them before. Worthless. I can't believe that people pay for insight like that. What it comes down to is numbers. And eBay came through... But then again... when has the stock market ever been about fundamentals.

So here's why I think you hold. eBay has just updated it's header which probably means they are probably going to improve the rest of the site. eBay is a horrid experience right now and they make a ton of money. It just goes to show that people would jump through any hoop to get what they want. Imagine if they finally got their act together and created a good experience?

Paypal is continuing to grow like crazy. Google's Gpay hasn't hurt it's sales at all. So will growth slow? Probably not, eCommerce is still growing and PayPal still has a tiny slice of the bigger commerce pie (both on and offline). Imagine what happens when they finally go offline into the stores. Watch out!

Skype is intruiging. It's growth is still amazing and it will interesting to see what eBay does with it. The latest updates to Skype Prime has been the integration of PayPal. Imagine what happens when they integrate into eBay. All of a sudden, customer service goes way up and trust and safety concerns go way down. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

So Hold... hold on tight. As for Large Caps in general. I think I will start investing more heavily into the smallies. At least I'll have hope and speculation on my side.



Notes:
In Portfolio: More than you know
Duration: I say it'll hit $60 again! Heck, maybe more!
Finally: Goodbye Sanjaya... I shall forget you

Friday, April 13, 2007

Holding Things Down

So I'm at a point where the portfolio is extremely diversified and in good position to grow. I think tinkering with what you have before it moves is a big mistake. For now, I'm going to sit on the portfolio for a bit until after earnings.

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Here's a current look at the current stock mix:

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)- Still low. I think it goes a little lower or stays the course until they release their next gen technology.

ARNA (Arena Pharmasuticals)- It's slowly moving upwards

BBI (Block Buster Video)- I still believe that it will continue to gain on NetFlix. The CEO's leaving is not about the business. It's more about the relationship between him and the board.

CELL (Bright Point)- Interesting one... Has made a nice 12% but I want to see where it goes... It's still low.

COGT (Cogent)- Holding steady at 13.

EBAY (uh... eBay)- The header has just changed and it's a world better. Is it a sign of things to come..? You know what they say about business' that are changing their storefronts...

EGY (Vaalco)- Iran, Iraq, and every other major oil supplier is a hot topic now. EGY are looking for alternatives. Let's see how Africa turns up.

EXEL (Exelis)- Another Stock for hope. Does it blow up like NUVO did?

ISV (Insight Vision)- Don't look at me, This is a girlfriend pick. Can't let her have all the fun ;)

LOOP(LoopNet)- Near 52 week highs... Waiting for Q1 Earnings to see if it meets and exceeds.

MNST (Monster) - Unjustly pummeled. Nice Bounce in the last couple of days.

NUVO (Nuvelo) - Does it keep on going up? I already cashed out.

PANL (Universal Display) - I'm holding onto this one forever!

RRGB (Red Robin) - Think I'll have burgers tonight. Still 10 bucks away from my 50 mark.

SBUX (Starbucks)- Still a chance to get in?

USO (United Oil Fund)- God, this one has gone nowhere. I think I'm up like 1% on this one. Hahaha. I'm terribly interested to see how this stock does as summer progresses.

VLO (Valero)- Too late baby!

YHOO (Yahoo!)- Let's see how Q1 has fared for the Y!

Monday, April 9, 2007

NUVO (Nuvelo): Placing Bets On Hope

I've had a lot of trouble writing about this stock. Believe it or not, this humble penny stock used to rock $378.75 (February 18, 2000).

So today, this bad boy exploded for 50% during the day and another 15% in after hours trading and I'm sorry that I couldn't write about this sooner but I just didn't have any major insights like I do with some other stocks like ARNA or GM. So I apologize however I just wanted to share my notes on this bad boy while it's top of mind.

HOW IT GOT HERE:
Back in December (2006) the company's main pharmaceutical pony, Alfimeprase, got steamrolled when it failed a Phase 3 clinical trial of it's performance in acute peripheral arterial occlusion (in English: it fights blood clots and might be effective against stroke) and took an undeserved (okay, maybe deserved) drubbing.

Testing involves, at times, failures. My thoughts on the 80% drop in one day...Wow.

WHY YOU SHOULD BUY (HAVE BOUGHT) IT:
It just received fast track approval for several of their cancer drugs (see website for details). I've read that "usually (and I emphasize usually), bio techs receive final FDA approval when the FDA has already fast tracked their drug." But let's be honest... any drug is fast tracked if there is a disease out there with no treatment or cure. It's fools gold.

It also has a decent pipeline with cash on hand and no debt. It's also worth mentioning that Bayer, the 50 million sponsor for Alfimeprase didn't jump ship.

MY REASONS FOR BUYING IT:
I really didn't have any. I didn't write about this one early on because I didn't feel strongly about it or have any unique insight. I just saw a solid company with with a lot of potential, strong public (CAPs) support, that is trying it cure something that is very close to me. It all came down to a bet on hope.



Notes:
In Portfolio: This one's for hope... I'm in!
Duration: Until it hits $378.75 again! (hmm, we'll see)
Random Thought: Cats are clean, they're covered in spit.

Thursday, April 5, 2007

MNST (Monster Inc): Yet Another Classic Over-Reaction By The Market

"The parent of the job website Monster.com said in a statement that its revenue for the first quarter ended Mar. 31 is expected to be in the range of $328 million to $329 million, slightly below its $330 million to $338 million forecast issued on Feb. 1. It also said Apr. 4 that it continues to expect the same financial results for the full year 2007 that it had forecast on Feb. 1. At the time, Monster projected revenue of $1.36 billion to $1.41 billion for the year.

Shares of Monster Worldwide Inc., which operates job site Monster.com, continued falling but a number of analysts (a lot of them) said the company will gain from international exposure. Monster backed full-year revenue guidance on Wednesday, but said first-quarter sales will come in below expectations, due in part to weakness in its North American careers unit."

Okay, okay... so what this all mean? It means that they slightly adjusted the guidance and the public over-reacted... as usual. And the result is the public sent the stock down 18%. Translation... Sale!

The North American Market is a little weak now but remember, it's cyclical. But I think as Americans, we don't see the big picture and in this case, it's the world. Monster is just dominating the international landscape and pretty soon, over sea revenue (now 27 percent of revenue) will surpass homeland revenue. But really, the situation at home isn't all that bad so if anything, think of it as an opportunity to get in on a solid stock with growth potential at a relatively cheap price. As always, we'll see.



Notes:
In Portfolio: Entry buy at $40 and will buy more as the stock bottoms out.
Duration: Tighten the leash at $60
Gyroball?: Daisuke Matsuzaka fans 10... Sox win 4-1

Friday, March 30, 2007

ARNA (Arena Pharmasutcials): Phat for Fat

We're big and we ain't so bad. Although you as a reader might not be in this category, let's face it, or rather, we have to face it, Obesity is a serious issue.

More than 30 percent of Americans are obese, a figure that has risen sharply over the past decade, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Substantial health risks (cardiovascular disease, hypertension, and type two diabetes) are associated with being overweight and obesity, leading to increased morbidity and mortality (2.6 million deaths annually worldwide from type two diabetes). The U.S. Surgeon General has estimated the direct and indirect economic costs of obesity at $117 billion per year.

So here's the big idea or rather, "the skinny." Arena has developed a top drug candidate Lorcaserin for Obesity entering phase 3 Insomnia APD125 in phase 2. Several more promising compound are also on deck (phase 1 or about to enter phase 1) and I'm liking the odds. What the drug essentially does is stimulates the 5-HT2C serotonin receptor, located in the part of the brain called the hypothalamus, which helps regulate satiety and influences metabolic rate. In English, it makes you feel full.

Data from a Phase 2b trial of lorcaserin demonstrated that patients who received the drug experienced significantly greater weight loss than patients who received placebo. So it's a miracle diet pill. Solid right? No you say? Okay, let's consider the alternatives we currently have:

Stomach Stapling: Needs strict patient compliance to diet, Vertical Banded Gastroplasty (the medical name for Stomach Stapling) is in no way a magic bullet or pill (ah, but Lorcaserin is). It must be emphasized that lifestyle changes (boo), i.e. diet (boo) and exercise (boo), are absolutely imperative for weight loss to occur and be maintained. As with any surgical procedure, there are risks of complications. It has been observed that approximately one in every hundred patients undergoing VBG die within a year.

Diets: Normal diets stress a lifestyle change and strange or extreme diets can be very dangerous, and they are often ineffective.

Liposuction: Who can afford it?

Fat Burners: There is no good reason for speeding up your heart but I guess the silver lining is that it proves that people are willing to pay for weight loss pills.

Richard Simmons: Side effects include embarrassment, a tacky wardrobe, and if you are a male, a significant increase of effeminate tendencies.

Let's face it, current weight loss systems are ineffective and in some cases, dangerous. As for alternatives involving medication, there are currently only two approved drugs to treat obesity and concerns about side effects and efficacy have limited the use of these, presenting an opportunity to help millions of patients with a new, safe and effective therapy and Arena has a viable drug candidate. The fate of this will turn initially on the results of the safety portion of the BLOOM (Behavioral modification and Lorcaserin for Overweight and Obesity Management) trial in the 3rd Quarter of 2007 however the result will be huge if they pass.



Notes:
In Portfolio: Yesh. (Sean Connery in da house!)
Duration: Until obesity is eridacated.
Over with: American Idol (Booooring). It's all about the Search for the next Pussy Cat Doll! P-C-D-4-LYF!!!

Sunday, March 25, 2007

GRMN (Garmin): In 100 Meters... Don't Buy


To begin with, I own a Garmin. I love it. It's really changed the life of this person who is forever cursed with wanderlust. For the 300-400 bucks that was paid, it was worth every penny. The money is paid back 10 fold with the time and gas that was saved from not getting lost (it's a common thing for me).

OK, So there are a lot of good things about the product however the business is a completely different story. So right now, the stock is soaring at near 52 week, not to mention lifetime highs at $56 a share. Nearly every article and nearly every person who comments on CAPS on Motley Fool, thinks this is a winner. But I'm having trouble believing that it's going to be the next AAPL or GOOG and that it's just going to keep on going up. It just doesn't feel right. So I put some thought into it and wrote them all down. Here are my notes:

STICKINESS:
While they currently have 60% of the market, there is nothing that is keeping a consumer stuck to them. I think of Apple's iPod and the amazing success they have had. While the product is gorgeously designed, I can think of a hundred other MP3 players are that just as beautiful, usable and frankly, more capable. What keeps someone from buying another player is iTunes. Buying another player means giving up all the money you invested into iTunes and starting over from scratch. So tell me. What's holding back a buyer from buying an alternate system from say, Tom Tom?

LOWER MARGINS:
We all know that it's inevitable that the prices will go down as competition within this space becomes more fierce. Units that now sell for $400+ will soon be sold for $150. Unfortunately, they can't control prices like iPod and the bottom line is that in the short term, they might be OK as everyone else begins to buy GPS devices because of the low cost, but I see a very similar future for Garmin much like what has happened for Motorola and the RAZR.

SATURATION:
So I recently had lunch with a co-worker who just bought a brand spanking new Mercedes CLK and I was oohing and ahhing over her new ride. I asked her if she got it fully loaded and she said: "No, we left off the GPS navigation system."

I got all excited and said: "Oh, you can get a Garmin! It's only $400 bucks and you can put it both of your cars."

She politely passed and mentioned that she didn't need to because she could just install GPS software onto her cellphone. I then thought: "Gosh, it would really suck for Garmin if everyone started putting it into their mobile devices."

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So ya, I hear everyone that Garmin is pretty bad ass. Heck, I'm one of the people saying it. But with all the hoopla around the stock, I just don't feel good putting the money into it. What ever happened to "Buy low, sell high..." We need to feel good in a trade and believe we picked it for the right reasons because when the stock drops, we won't freak out. It's at all time highs, there is no stickiness to the product, the prices are going down and soon, anything mobile with a screen will be doing the same thing. I'm sure that there are a lot of things I don't know about the company and their strategy however 1) If you don't know the business, don't invest in it and 2) It doesn't pass the common sense test.

We'll see how well it does but I'll pass on this one.



Notes:
In Portfolio: Gosh no, Heck no, Please no.
Remember: The Silverhawks?
Bullshit: Sajaya Malakar is still on American Idol

Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Qoute of the Day: Jim Cramer

"Who cares about the fundamentals? The great thing about the market is that it has nothing to do with the actual stocks."

Friday, March 16, 2007

Market Strategy: Keeping One's Self Sane in a Choppy Market

Gosh, I hate a choppy the market the most. It evokes my most hated enemy: Emotion.

I can't stand it. Although I'm in better shape than I was last week and although I'm currently beating the market. I hate the feeling that I'm not moving fast enough. Not getting to where I want to be. Yet through all these things that I'm feeling, I have to always remind myself that: Being Emotional plus Impatient equals Losing a crap load of money. So let's focus on the Pros & Cons and decide what to do from there.

PROS:
- With the Nasdaq lower by 1.5% and the DOW down 2.5% than compared to the start of the year, I'm beating out the market however, I'm still at EVEN. Booooo!
- I really like my portfolio. I truly believe they will all be winners!
- It easily could be waaaay worse

CONS:
- I feel like I'm going no-where financially
- I feel I could be doing more
- I'm getting impatient

---------------------------------------------

THE ANALYSIS:
The truth of the matter is that I'm doing OK. In reality, the way I have my sell prices set at, I'll do pretty darn well (assuming the market recovers and all goes as planned). The Pros definitely speak to that. The Cons, if you haven't already noticed, are overwhelmingly emotional. Irrelevant right?

THE LESSON:
So the million dollar lesson that I constantly have to re-teach myself: When stocks go up... It goes up fast. Really, really fast. The majority of the time, we're just getting ourselves in position to reap the profits.

THE STRATEGY:
Here's what I have come up with.

To address my need for action, I have designated a set number of shares for trading and left the majority for investment. So as the market experiences volatility as it tries to find some direction, I can buy and sell and pretty much address my concerns as listed in my CONS. This way, I can get a leg up in the market while still being in position to enjoy the long term (and many times more rewarding) benefits when the bulls decides wakes up and run.

So yes, while I'm fully aware that buying at the lows and holding rather than putting aside shares to trade will probably end in the same gain. I think we have to remember who we are. As investors, we need to keep, hold and believe in the investments we make. But as my patience gives way to my emotions... I think I still need to be true to who I am. Flaws included.

Friday, March 9, 2007

GM (General Motors): What Words are Synonymous with Ressurection?

Reliability, Performance, Design and Value. These are the 4 pillars that the entire auto industry is built upon. It's product centric. It has nothing to do with clever marketing (remember the 48 hour test drive), or amazing deals (remember the Employee Discount F'up?) or even America in general. It's about making beautiful to look at, innovative, fun to drive cars.

GMC's new product is amazing. From the revitilization of Cadillac and Saturn to the exciting new concepts from Chevy... I can't wait for this American company to remind the world where cars we're born. Let's take a look at the line up.




Saturn/Opel/Vauxhall: Awesome new set of cars and SUVs. It's amazing how they have executed a complete line change within 2 years.


Cadillac: Won't become the standard of the world again but it sure as heck will be up there with the other big hitters.


Buick: Being reborn (much like Saturn and Cadillac) as we speak... New Enclave SUV is the start of a new generation of great Buicks.


Chevy: I love the new product coming out. HHR, Silverado (MotorTrend: Co-Truck of the Year), Avalance, Tahoe and new Malibu are SOLID. Concept cars (Camaro) on tour are gorgeous and intiial drawings of the new impala and monte carlo are stunners. Don't forget the Corvette (Best v8 in the world... 400HP and 28 MPG).


GMC: The Sierra was the MotorTrend Co-Truck of the Year, The Acadia, The awesomeness is here.

Pontiac/Holden: The real "Thunder From Down Under" Not that I've ever seen that show... or know of it... shut up! ALL OF YOU... SHUT! UP! *cry*

Hummer: The lone dark spot

Saab: Okaaay... two dark spots

With the quality gap between European and Japanese product quickly closing. What's going to make the difference? It's going to be the past. It's going to be the heritage that America's once great companies once had. Finally, we have cars that are worthy of that rich spirit and it's going to be the difference. I see GM back down in the 20's as new product begins to roll out but give it a few years, and I'm predicting that this stock see's it's glory days back at 60+. As always... we'll see. For now, we're seeing some pretty amazing product come off the lines.




Notes:
In Portfolio: Not just yet, waiting for sub-30 to get in.
Duration: In it for the long term baby, well, once I get in.
And then?: I'm going to buy a 2008 Camaro, a 2008 Cadillac CTS, or the new Saturn SUV *drool*

Tuesday, March 6, 2007

The Market Finally Wakes Up

Hahahah... wow... only one day after I post and it turns back around. Hope the uptrend continues. It baffles me why the Stock Exchange is the only market where people panic when there is a sale.

Monday, March 5, 2007

Resolve, Resolve, Resolve

I think it's appropiate to write now that the market has been taken out to the woodshed and been given the beating of a lifetime. Like everyone else, I'm still bleeding... badly. So the question is, what do you do? The bleeding seems to never end and yes, it's scary... really, really scary.

So let's pull it back a little and go through the list and see how we are doing? Well, first off, I'm in much better shape than from where we started (I'm where I started with the market down 15% from where I started). OK, so we're in good shape. So let's take a look at the picks and re-evaluate. Sell the ones that we're not confident in, and keep (maybe invest more into) the stocks that we like.

I guess what I'm trying to say is this: If you really like your picks, why are you bailing out so early? It's easy to stay in when things are good however I will personally say that my best gains have come from sticking it out; In and out of the stock market.

So here's mine, how did yours pan out?

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AMD - Yes, They are getting their asses kicked but at some point, they're going to turn the corner and I'm going to be there. It doesn't have much more to fall but buy more as it goes down. Accumulate.

BBI - I still like this stock. It's a superior product to Netflix and they are already laying the groundwork for online downloads. To $20 Scotty! Hold.

COGT - Pursuing more than 20 significant projects in more than 15 countries and any new contracts will send this bad boy soaring. It'll disappear if it goes any lower. Hold.

EXEL - Just like Cogent. It has so many products in the pipeline and is so small that any approval will send this bad boy soaring. Accumulate.

GTW - Ya ya, but I only have a small bet for a turnaround prospect. Leave me alone. Hold.

ISV - It's a 5 star stock on CAPS and is at a low price but I'm ashamed to admit that I only bought the stock because my fiance has it as well. Can't let her have all the fun. Besides, it's a tiny bet. Hold.

WFMI - Now I got out of this one after it jumped 5 dollars two weeks ago. I've always been iffy on a couple of sectors and they are the airline industry and the supermarket industry. Sell

LOOP - It's still higher than the $13.50 price that I got into it with. I'm personally am excited about this one. Hold.

PANL - I am so enamored by the potential of this company's technology. It's lower than what I bought it at and I'll buy more as it goes down. Accumulate.

RRGB - I have a decent bet in this stock and it's still higher than what I bought it at. I can't wait to see how this one rebounds once the market starts to go back up again. Hold.

SBUX - Near 52 week lows and I will continue to buy more as it goes down. Accumulate.

USO - It's higher than where I bought it at and Crude Oil 'ain't' going nowhere but up. Hold.

VLO - It's much higher than where I bought it at and it's gas. Enough said. Hold.

KANA - I only have a small bet for a turnaround prospect. Haven't lost anything, didn't make anything. To be honest, I'm really just in this stock because my uncle Chuck has this as one of his big potentials. Nothing beats making money with your friends and family. Hold.

YHOO - It's way higher than where I bought it at and Panama is picking up traction earlier than expected. Hold.

ATVI - The game companies are still gaining tracking. I'll be buying more as this stock goes down. Accumulate.

Tuesday, February 20, 2007

JBLU (JetBlue): Customer Bill of Rights = Company's Living Will


Today, JetBlue unleashed (on itself) what it calls it's Customer Bill of Rights (essentially putting themselves in a burlap sack and then beating themselves with a freshly made sausage) which details a list of self-imposed penalties on all of it's flights if they are delayed in an attempt to win back passengers after last week's operational screw ups. The release states that:

"JetBlue customers will be compensated based on the length of the delays. The vouchers range from $25 to the full amount of the ticket. The delays include airplanes unable to taxi to the gate within 30 minutes and flight departures held up for a minimum of three hours, according to a program copy provided to The Associated Press."

I am personally a part of this because for the long weekend, we flew out a friend to come join us and her flight was delayed 7 hours. We were thankful that she even made it out considering the icestorm however the delay was a drag. We ended up picking her up at 4 am in the morning at a different airport 40 miles away.

Reading this new this morning was great! I'm glad that we'll be getting a full refund and yes, JetBlue still has our business however this Customer Bill of Rights is essentially death for the stock and what it comes down to is that the company pretty much has given up profitability for half the year. Every time there is fog, rain, snow, a troublesome passenger, a technical malfunction, or a pilot with an overly active bladder, they'll be reaching for their pockets. It's brilliant in terms of customer satifaction but suicide in terms of profits. They'll be breaking even or losing money on any flight that goes wrong. Surely this is an over reaction on their part.

I'm glad I cashed out at $14.50 with my $50 dollar profit because ever since, the stock has been crashing and will continue to crash until they revise their bill of rights or until man learns how to control the weather.





Notes:
In Portfolio: Just got the hell out.
Random Thought: Cats aren't clean, they're covered in spit.
Best Dunk: Dwight Howard's Sticker Dunk

Monday, February 12, 2007

SBUX (Starbucks): A Legal Addiction


What it all comes down to is legalized drug dealing (OK, maybe not that bad but I'm just illustrating a point). Society needs outlets and the three that Uncle Sam has allowed us are smoking, alchohol and caffeine. It begins as a social thing and later becomes a dependancy. It's crazy and it's to a point where my friends make mental notes of each and every Starbucks location as they are driving. I guess what I'm trying to say is that coffee is a neccessity (like gas, food, and water) for many.

My second thought is that drinking a cup of Starbucks is like having a little slice of luxury for a few dollars every day. It's also part of the reason why the iPod has been enjoying so much success, because it's considered a luxury item that can be easily accessed by the general public. It's not a 3,000 rolex or a 35,000 BMW. It's 300 dollars for the iPod and 3.00 for the coffee. Coffee is even better because of the margins but that doesn't need to be delved into.

The most important stat is that Starbuck's goal is for 40,000 thousand stores world wide and they currently are at 14,000. “We keep getting surprised by how successful we are each time,” says Peter Maslen, president of Starbucks Coffee International, commenting on how new international customers have reacted. They are gaining nice traction in non-US countries and although the stock seems pricey now, I don't see it going anywhere but up. It's currently expensive however it will seem relatively cheap a while from now. We'll see tho, but from the way my friends are mad about their coffee, it's a great buy for me. Witness.





Notes:
In Portfolio: Entry buy at 32.75 and will buy more as it goes down.
Duration: Long term
Random Thought: Justin Timberlake has a higher voice than the girl he sang with at the Grammy's... that's just wrong.

Friday, January 26, 2007

AMD (Advanced Micro Devices): A Fighter. Always Has and Always Will Be

AMD and I go way back... waaaaaaaaaaay back. Gosh, this stock has been with me ever since I was in college. Through the years, I have seen this stock get pummeled time and time again and each time it's been pummeled, I've seen it fight back. This is a company of fighters and it's in an epic battle between Intel. So even tho the stock is down now, and will continue to drop in the near term, from what I know as a computer guy and from everything I read, this is why and how I think AMD will fight and fight back in a big way.

Actually, there was an entry in CAPS that solidified everything I believe. So rather than rewrite everything. I'll just let the beauty of the entry speak for itself.

"Engineers of AMD have a new brilliant and revolutionary idea. Together with ATI they'll bring the CPU and GPU on the same chip. But this is just the beginning of a new era. In near future they will probably mold a physic-engine, and any kind of accelerated units that your imagination allows, within a single chip. (Ref: AMDs analyst day at 14. Dec. 2006, presentation of Phil Hester, AMD's Corporate Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, http://www.amd.com/us-en/Corporate/
InvestorRelations/0,,51_306_14668,0
0.html)

This means no more FSB speed limit between CPU and GPU. After this fact was declared (actually much before 14.Dec), NVDA has tried an urgent counter attack, and announced a new NFORCE motherboard with 1033 MHz FSB speed in addition to its new 8800 GeForce serie. This however doesn't compensate the fascinating idea of hardwired CPU-GPU.

Similarly Intel's hurriedly planned 45 nm chips cannot counterbalance this revolutionary idea. In fact most of the end-users will not even have interested about the nm scala of these chips.

If the system intelligently optimized and perform better, it should sell better. Marriage of AMD and ATI is something more than targeting the game and multimedia market. With this new concept, they will change the rules. They will redefine the art of computing and they will break the new speed limits.

Imagine how the motherboards will shrink. And imagine how AMD will invade the laptop market. Hardware that we add on today's motherboards, or some addons like on board vga's will be shifted from the surface of motherboards into the processor. This means however means cheaper laptops, cheaper motherboards, but more apportionment for AMD since it offers more functionality on its chips.

In long term this means motherboards will be cheaper, but AMD chips will be sold for higher prices, because on their chips they will bring more than multiple-cpu's. They will cancel the need for graphic cards, or on the board vga's. And in future, they will probably cancel the need for basic audio functions, they can easily bring physic -engines for gamers, etc. etc... Possibilities are limited with your imagination."

It is vision like this that brought apple from it's mediocrity. And what it comes down to is something truly unique, powerful and desireable. That's for the long term though.

In the short term. I think that AMD's newer lines of processors (It's current generation is pretty old), it's growth and integration of the ATI brand, and the Vista bump will bring it back up from the depths. i think it's a fairly solid, innovative company that has made pretty big gains in market share. Even though the price war between itself and Intel is hurting them both, I don't see either going anywhere significant in the near term.

The way I look at things, the near term drop in prices as a AMD cocking it's fist to throw a massive punch.





Notes:
In Portfolio: Yes, got in at 19... *tear*
Duration: (Pre-Earnings) Long term, (Post-Earnings) Really, really long term
Superbowl Prediction: Bears... No, Colts, No, Bears... I dunno... It's gonna be a great game!