AMD and I go way back... waaaaaaaaaaay back. Gosh, this stock has been with me ever since I was in college. Through the years, I have seen this stock get pummeled time and time again and each time it's been pummeled, I've seen it fight back. This is a company of fighters and it's in an epic battle between Intel. So even tho the stock is down now, and will continue to drop in the near term, from what I know as a computer guy and from everything I read, this is why and how I think AMD will fight and fight back in a big way.
Actually, there was an entry in CAPS that solidified everything I believe. So rather than rewrite everything. I'll just let the beauty of the entry speak for itself.
"Engineers of AMD have a new brilliant and revolutionary idea. Together with ATI they'll bring the CPU and GPU on the same chip. But this is just the beginning of a new era. In near future they will probably mold a physic-engine, and any kind of accelerated units that your imagination allows, within a single chip. (Ref: AMDs analyst day at 14. Dec. 2006, presentation of Phil Hester, AMD's Corporate Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, http://www.amd.com/us-en/Corporate/
InvestorRelations/0,,51_306_14668,0
0.html)
This means no more FSB speed limit between CPU and GPU. After this fact was declared (actually much before 14.Dec), NVDA has tried an urgent counter attack, and announced a new NFORCE motherboard with 1033 MHz FSB speed in addition to its new 8800 GeForce serie. This however doesn't compensate the fascinating idea of hardwired CPU-GPU.
Similarly Intel's hurriedly planned 45 nm chips cannot counterbalance this revolutionary idea. In fact most of the end-users will not even have interested about the nm scala of these chips.
If the system intelligently optimized and perform better, it should sell better. Marriage of AMD and ATI is something more than targeting the game and multimedia market. With this new concept, they will change the rules. They will redefine the art of computing and they will break the new speed limits.
Imagine how the motherboards will shrink. And imagine how AMD will invade the laptop market. Hardware that we add on today's motherboards, or some addons like on board vga's will be shifted from the surface of motherboards into the processor. This means however means cheaper laptops, cheaper motherboards, but more apportionment for AMD since it offers more functionality on its chips.
In long term this means motherboards will be cheaper, but AMD chips will be sold for higher prices, because on their chips they will bring more than multiple-cpu's. They will cancel the need for graphic cards, or on the board vga's. And in future, they will probably cancel the need for basic audio functions, they can easily bring physic -engines for gamers, etc. etc... Possibilities are limited with your imagination."
It is vision like this that brought apple from it's mediocrity. And what it comes down to is something truly unique, powerful and desireable. That's for the long term though.
In the short term. I think that AMD's newer lines of processors (It's current generation is pretty old), it's growth and integration of the ATI brand, and the Vista bump will bring it back up from the depths. i think it's a fairly solid, innovative company that has made pretty big gains in market share. Even though the price war between itself and Intel is hurting them both, I don't see either going anywhere significant in the near term.
The way I look at things, the near term drop in prices as a AMD cocking it's fist to throw a massive punch.
Notes:
In Portfolio: Yes, got in at 19... *tear*
Duration: (Pre-Earnings) Long term, (Post-Earnings) Really, really long term
Superbowl Prediction: Bears... No, Colts, No, Bears... I dunno... It's gonna be a great game!
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