Thursday, April 19, 2007

EBAY (eBay Inc): You Can Find It (Sadness) Here!

You know, only with large cap stocks, you can have a situation where a company totally overachieves and still gets penalized for it.

eBay posted a 52 percent jump in net profit on a 27 percent revenue rise, led by growth in its core auctions business and the rising prominence of international sales. On top of that, they also raised the top and bottom line for 2007 Guidance. Wow, that's impressive for a mature company. Really impressive.

Then the next day. The stock drops 10% from it's previous day after hour highs of $36+. I know... WTF. But that's the way the stock market works. It doesn't always make sense. And this is why smart traders can make money. So eBay going to go back up? Ya, probably. But you're going to have to be patient.

Today's fall came as a result of some report from yet another so-called expert. We've all seen them before. Worthless. I can't believe that people pay for insight like that. What it comes down to is numbers. And eBay came through... But then again... when has the stock market ever been about fundamentals.

So here's why I think you hold. eBay has just updated it's header which probably means they are probably going to improve the rest of the site. eBay is a horrid experience right now and they make a ton of money. It just goes to show that people would jump through any hoop to get what they want. Imagine if they finally got their act together and created a good experience?

Paypal is continuing to grow like crazy. Google's Gpay hasn't hurt it's sales at all. So will growth slow? Probably not, eCommerce is still growing and PayPal still has a tiny slice of the bigger commerce pie (both on and offline). Imagine what happens when they finally go offline into the stores. Watch out!

Skype is intruiging. It's growth is still amazing and it will interesting to see what eBay does with it. The latest updates to Skype Prime has been the integration of PayPal. Imagine what happens when they integrate into eBay. All of a sudden, customer service goes way up and trust and safety concerns go way down. It'll be interesting to see what happens.

So Hold... hold on tight. As for Large Caps in general. I think I will start investing more heavily into the smallies. At least I'll have hope and speculation on my side.



Notes:
In Portfolio: More than you know
Duration: I say it'll hit $60 again! Heck, maybe more!
Finally: Goodbye Sanjaya... I shall forget you